Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

FOREX-Dollar jumps to highest since April

Published 17/11/2015, 07:53 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar jumps to highest since April
USD/JPY
-
C
-
DX
-
DXY
-

* Euro falls below $1.0650

* Pressured by expectations of monetary easing next month

* Dollar index rises to fresh 7-month highs on Fed-hike bets

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar surged against the euro for a second day on Tuesday and some dealers said a push above $1.06 per euro might open the way for a swift move to highs hit in the first half of 2015.

The Paris attacks had weighed on the euro on Monday but the broader theme of divergent interest rate policy was firmly back in focus on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation and German sentiment data.

The dollar hit a seven-month high of $1.0647 in early European trade, up 0.4 percent on the day. EUR=EBS

"We have thought for a week now that these levels around $1.0600, $1.0640 are the key ones for the euro," said the head of spot currency trading at a large international bank in London, who asked not to be named.

"If it gets below these levels it could go very quickly. The pain trade is obviously in the other direction and I would note that we have seen clients betting on the dollar using options to cheapen their dollar positions into the end of the year."

The dollar index .DXY , which tracks the U.S. currency against six major rivals, added 0.2 percent to 99.589, after setting a fresh seven-month high of 99.655. breaking above highs marked last week on surprisingly robust U.S. jobs data.

Almost all of the major currency trading banks are forecasting a rise towards parity with the euro in the months ahead but the past two weeks have proved stickier for the dollar than some expected. Options markets also point to substantial barriers to further gains between current levels and March and April highs around $1.0450.

U.S. consumer price data scheduled for later this session could help make the case for a rise in Federal Reserve interest rates next month, now broadly expected by many in markets.

While headline inflation remains close to zero, at least one measure of underlying core inflation is running at almost 2 percent. In sharp contrast with the Fed, the European Central Bank is considered very likely to expand or extend its quantitative easing programme next month.

"In terms of FX price action, we've reverted to the trend that was in place before the weekend's terrible events (in France), which is euro underperforming into the December ECB on expectations of increased QE," said Sue Trinh, a strategist with RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.

A Reuters poll of traders on Monday showed that most expected the ECB to diversify the 60 billion euros a month of mostly government bonds it has been buying since March to include municipal bonds.

"Disappointment by the ECB at this stage would be tantamount to solidifying expectations at current levels for growth and inflation, a trap we fully expect them to avoid," Richard Cochinos, head of European G10 FX strategy at Citigroup (N:C), said in a note.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, released on Monday IMM/FX due to last week's U.S. Veteran's Day holiday, showed that investors boosted their dollar bets in the week ended Nov. 10 to the highest levels since mid-August. Those are still just over half of the levels seen in March and April, however, suggesting players have more space to engage in the dollar's rise.

The dollar added about 0.1 percent to 123.27 yen JPY= , away from the previous session's one-week low of 122.23, as investor risk aversion faded. The yen is traditionally a safe-haven currency, and it had gained after the Paris attacks. (Editing by Catherine Evans)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.