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RBA Preview: Rate pause predicted amid cooling inflation

Published 01/08/2023, 12:05 pm
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Investing.com - Australian market participants are looking towards a key interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia later in Tuesday's session, with policymakers widely expected to maintain its current cash rate in August, amidst signs of moderating inflation and a slowdown in consumer spending.

Last month saw the bank increasing its cash rate to 3.85%, marking an eleventh step-up since last May, which collectively totals a surge of 375 basis points.

With peak inflation possibly behind us, the RBA maintains that it remains too high. Consequently, this necessitates potential further hikes to bring inflation back within its target range of 2-3%.

Philip Lowe, former Governor of the Reserve Bank, recently highlighted this need for realigning inflation with their set targets within reasonable timeframes. Policymakers have expressed readiness to initiate more adjustments if required while keeping close tabs on economic performance and future outlooks regarding inflation and employment trends.

Meanwhile, experts across various financial institutions are offering mixed predictions. 

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX:ANZ) analysts believe that despite some speculation around an increase this month, the chances for a pause seem stronger. Their reasoning stems from key factors such as faster-than-anticipated moderation in inflation rates and evident constraints imposed by monetary policies.

Contrastingly, ING suggests that recent data could justify keeping the cash rate at its present level until September. They point out that both headline and trimmed mean inflation have fallen below expectations which may prompt RBA officials to hold off any changes till there is sufficient downward progression or a resurgence of inflation.

Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) offers another perspective, suggesting the potential for yet another 25 basis points hike during this week’s meeting. However, they also acknowledge risks associated with continued increases given weaker retail sales results and second-quarter CPI figures falling short of expectations.

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) echoes similar sentiments arguing for holding the policy rate steady while remaining open to future adjustments depending on price and wage inflation trends. They suggest that if progress towards slowing these parameters stalls then RBA might be inclined to resume hiking rates again.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX:WBC) stands apart predicting an imminent rise by 25 basis points reaching up to 4.35%. In their view persistent service sector inflation warrants further 'insurance' through an increase now followed by maintaining tightening bias while assessing future risk evolution.

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