Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Oil settles lower ahead of OPEC+ decision

Published 28/11/2023, 01:42 am
© Reuters. An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS/File Photo
LCO
-
CL
-

(This Nov. 24 story has been corrected to add weekly loss data in paragraph 2 and show that there was no weekly oil price gain in the headline and paragraph 1)

By Laura Sanicola

(Reuters) - Oil fell on Friday as the release of some hostages in Gaza reduced the geopolitical risk premium ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting to decide on production cuts in 2024.

Brent crude futures settled down 84 cents, or 1%, at $80.58 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.56, or 2%, from Wednesday's close to $75.54. There was no settlement for WTI on Thursday owing to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Brent settled 3 cents lower on the week while WTI fell 35 cents from last Friday's settlement.

The first group of hostages freed from captivity in Gaza returned to Israel on Friday, on the first day of a planned four-day truce during which further exchanges of hostages for Palestinian detainees are due to take place.

"The fact that they followed through was significant for reducing the risk premium," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Both contracts had their first weekly gain in five weeks as OPEC+ prepares for a meeting that will have output cuts high on the agenda after recent oil price declines on demand concerns and burgeoning supply, particularly from non-OPEC producers.

The OPEC+ group, comprising of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, surprised the market on Wednesday by delaying its Nov. 26 to Nov. 30 after producers struggled to reach a consensus on output levels.

OPEC+ has moved closer to a compromise with African oil producers on 2024 output levels, three OPEC+ sources have told Reuters.

"The most likely outcome now appears to be an extension of existing cuts," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

The surprise delay had initially brought Brent futures down as much as 4% and WTI by as much as 5% in intraday trading on Wednesday. Trading remained subdued during Thursday's U.S. holiday.

"While I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see leaks or comments over the weekend that still have an impact on the oil price on the open next week, the actual meeting now occurring Thursday could put traders' minds somewhat at ease," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

A bright spot came in the form of the near-term economic outlook in China. Recent Chinese data and fresh aid to the indebted property sector can be "positive for the oil market's near-term trend", said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng.

Yet those gains could be capped by higher U.S. crude stockpiles and poor refining margins, leading to weaker demand from U.S. refineries, analysts said.

"Fundamentals developments have been bearish with rising U.S. oil inventories," ANZ analysts said in a note.

© Reuters. An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS/File Photo

Still, China's longer-term outlook remains lukewarm. Analysts say oil demand growth could weaken to about 4% in the first half of 2024 as the property sector crunch weighs on diesel use.

Non-OPEC production growth is set to remain strong, with Brazilian state energy company Petrobras planning to invest $102 billion over the next five years to boost output to 3.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2028, up from 2.8 million boepd in 2024.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.