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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Published 30/10/2016, 08:36 pm
Updated 30/10/2016, 08:51 pm
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead

Investing.com - In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s highly-anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting for fresh hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

Global financial markets will also focus on the monthly U.S. employment report due Friday to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand a tightening in monetary policy before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Wednesday, with most investors expecting the bank to hold off on expanding stimulus after having just revamped its policy framework.

Thursday’s rate announcement from the Bank of England will be in focus after BOE Governor Mark Carney cast doubt on expectations for more monetary stimulus last week.

Elsewhere, in China, market players will be looking out for data on the country's manufacturing sector, amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Fed Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve is not expected to take action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET (18:00GMT) on Wednesday.

The central bank will also release its latest statement as investors look for any change in language which could point more clearly to a December rate hike.

A rate hike ahead of the November 8 presidential election is seen as highly unlikely. Markets are currently pricing in a less than 10% chance of a rate hike next week, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. For December, odds stood at around 75%.

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2. U.S. Jobs Report for October

The U.S. Labor Department will release its October nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) on Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 175,000, following an increase of 156,000 in September, the unemployment rate is forecast to dip to 4.9% from 5.0%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.2% a month earlier.

An upbeat employment report will point to an improving economy and support the case for higher interest rates in the coming months, while a weak report would add to uncertainty over the economic outlook and push prospects of tighter monetary policy further off the table.

Besides the employment report, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on manufacturing and service sector growth, auto sales, personal spending, inflation, factory orders as well as monthly trade figures.

3. BOJ Policy Announcement

The Bank of Japan's latest rate decision is due during Asian hours on Tuesday. The BOJ will also publish a monetary policy statement, where it will assess the progress of its new yield-control framework.

Central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference afterward to discuss the decision.

A Reuters poll showed on Friday that the Japanese central bank is expected to keep its negative interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, while maintaining the 10-year government bond yield target at around 0.0% after overhauling its policy focus last month.

The poll also showed analysts expect the BOJ to maintain the net amount of Japanese government bonds it buys annually at around 80 trillion yen ($760.96 billion).

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4. Bank of England Rate Decision

The Bank of England will release its rate decision and minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee meeting at 11:00GMT (7:00AM ET) on Thursday.

Market analysts expect the BOE to stand pat on policy after comments from Governor Mark Carney combined with a slew of robust data in the past week saw fears of a recession in the near term abate.

The majority of economists polled by Reuters have pushed a rate cut off the table for this year, with some traders in financial markets already speculating on the next move up.

In addition, the U.K. will release readings on October manufacturing sector activity on Tuesday, followed by a report on the construction sector on Wednesday and the service sector on Thursday.

5. Chinese Manufacturing Data for October

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing is to release data on October manufacturing sector activity at 01:00GMT on Tuesday (9:00PM ET Monday), followed by the Caixin manufacturing index at 01:45GMT (9:45PM ET).

The official China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index is forecast to remain unchanged at 50.4, while the Caixin survey is expected to inch up to 50.2 from 50.1 in the preceding month.

Anything above 50.0 signals expansion, while readings below 50.0 indicate industry contraction.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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