Investing.com-- China’s economy appears poised to meet its 2024 economic growth target as recent government measures show signs of bolstering key sectors, ANZ Research said on Tuesday.
The November manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed, reflecting a rebound in factory activity following series of government stimulus packages. Early signs of stabilization in the property market aided by new tax incentives, and steady consumer spending during the “Double 11” shopping season further supported economic sentiment, ANZ analysts said in a note.
ANZ forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 4.9% for 2024, slightly below the official target of "around 5%", but within range. However, it cautioned that a sustainable recovery remains uncertain, with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference expected to outline priorities for 2025.
Exports have surged, with new orders hitting a seven-month high, according to PMI data. The China Containerized Freight Index also rebounded, reflecting strong trade momentum. Market concerns over tariffs announced by former U.S. President Donald Trump have prompted businesses to accelerate shipments, further boosting trade figures, ANZ said.
Retail sales are forecast to grow 4.2% year-on-year in November, buoyed by early promotions for the shopping festival. While a slight pullback is expected, consumer spending is likely to remain resilient through the year-end, ANZ analysts said.
The struggling property sector also offered some optimism, with home sales in 30 cities rising to their highest levels this year, recording a 3% month-on-month increase in November. Property investment, however, is projected to contract by 10.2% year-to-date, improving only slightly from October's figures, according to the ANZ research.
Sales of new energy vehicles soared in November, with the sector's market penetration surpassing 53%, up from 38.6% in October. In contrast, youth unemployment remained a concern, with the jobless rate for those aged 16-24 expected to rise above 17.1% as temporary service contracts ended after the national holiday in October, the brokerage added.