Get 40% Off
👀 👁 🧿 All eyes on Biogen, up +4,56% after posting earnings. Our AI picked it in March 2024.
Which stocks will surge next?
Unlock AI-picked Stocks

WRAPUP 1-Australia's cbank on hold as economy set to seal 27 years without recession

Published 04/09/2018, 03:48 pm
Updated 04/09/2018, 03:50 pm
© Reuters.  WRAPUP 1-Australia's cbank on hold as economy set to seal 27 years without recession

* RBA keeps rates at 1.50 pct, as widely expected

* Rate rise distant as inflation still below RBA's target

* Q2 GDP due Wednesday 0130 GMT, expectations for +0.7 pct q/q

By Wayne Cole and Swati Pandey

SYDNEY, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank entered its third year of policy stability on Tuesday, and a change seems no nearer even as its commercial cousins nudge up their home loan rates to protect profit margins.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ended its September board meeting with rates held at an all-time low of 1.50 percent and signalling a steady policy ahead.

Even though the status quo decision was widely expected, the Australian dollar AUD=D3 bounced more than a quarter of a U.S. cent to reverse early losses as Governor Philip Lowe sounded staunchly upbeat about the A$1.8 trillion economy.

"In the first half of 2018, the economy is estimated to have grown at an above-trend rate," Lowe said.

"Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase."

Still, the bank was in no hurry to hike, given wage growth and inflation remain uncomfortably low.

An added reason for caution was a recent increase in mortgage rates by Australia's No.2 lender Westpac WBC.AX . move had led interbank futures 0#YIB: to push back the chance of a hike to early 2020 as traders wagered other banks would follow suit, leading to a de-facto tightening in the market.

However, Lowe did not acknowledge Westpac's move in his short statement while repeating average mortgage rates were still lower than a year ago.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

He also appeared comfortable about a slowdown in the housing market, saying there was still competition in the market for good-quality borrowers.

"The RBA is cautious by nature, reluctant to take risks, and that is a sound approach in the current climate," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist for global job site Indeed.

Pickering cited mortgage rate hikes by Westpac as one reason for the RBA to stay on the sidelines.

"Even if the economy was in a strong spot, why would the RBA bother hiking when the banks are doing it for them?"

UPBEAT ECONOMY

Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures due on Wednesday are seen likely to show the economy notched up its 27th year without a recession, with expectations cemented by data out earlier.

Government spending, which accounts for almost a quarter of annual GDP, rose 1 percent in the second quarter. data showed net exports added around 0.1 percentage points to GDP in the quarter, thanks in part to strength in rural goods, energy and tourism.

A median of 16 analysts polled by Reuters forecasts GDP growth of 0.7 percent in the June quarter from the March quarter when it rose 1.0 percent. Annual growth likely slowed to a still-solid 2.8 percent, from a surprisingly rapid 3.1 percent the previous quarter.

The RBA is still predicting growth of a little above 3 percent for this year and next, with a boom in infrastructure spending driving much of that expansion.

But fears of a global trade war and strains in emerging markets have also reinforced investors' suspicions that rates will stay low for a long time to come.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

"With the full effect of tighter lending conditions, falling house prices and a weaker global backdrop yet to be felt, such an acceleration in growth looks like a pipe dream to us," said Paul Dales, Sydney-based chief economist at Capital Economics.

"If so, then wage growth and underlying inflation are unlikely to rise as the RBA is hoping, which would make it very challenging for the RBA to build the case for a rate hike before the end of next year."

($1 = 1.3893 Australian dollars)

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Eric Meijer)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.