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GLOBAL ECONOMY-Manufacturing vigour remains, strong currencies hinder exports

Published 01/03/2018, 09:59 pm
Updated 01/03/2018, 10:00 pm
GLOBAL ECONOMY-Manufacturing vigour remains, strong currencies hinder exports
USD/JPY
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* Euro zone growth stays robust, British factories stumble

* Japan, Taiwan activity slows, Korean exports weakest since2016

* China private manufacturing survey more upbeat thanofficial one

* exporters concerned over strong currencies (Adds European data)

By Jonathan Cable and Marius Zaharia

LONDON/HONG KONG, March 1 (Reuters) - Manufacturing datapainted a mixed picture of economic activity across the globe,with stronger currencies hurting exporters, but the growthmomentum demonstrated at the start of the year appears to haveonly dwindled slightly.

The euro zone's boom has slowed a little further andBritain's factory activity slipped to its lowest in eightmonths, yet China surprisingly showed resilience amid fearstighter regulations may slow growth.

"Things came in a bit better than we expected. We are seeingpretty strong global growth and demand," said Jacqui Douglas,chief European macro strategist at TD Securities.

Factories across the euro zone are still enjoying their bestgrowth spell in almost two decades which, alongside pricepressures at a near seven-year high, will be welcomed bypolicymakers at the European Central Bank as they move closer tounwinding their ultra-easy monetary policy.

IHS Markit's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index(PMI)for the euro zone fell to 58.6 in February from 59.6, justpipping an earlier flash estimate of 58.5 and comfortably abovethe 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. EUR/PMIM

That robust growth came even though a sub-index measuringoutput prices rose to 58.4 from 58.0, its highest reading sinceApril 2011.

Despite a marked upturn in orders, Britain's factory PMIinched down to 55.2 in February, its second-lowest reading sinceJune 2016's Brexit vote though a shade above the averageforecast of 55.0 in a Reuters poll. GB/PMIM

Taken at face value, the figures suggest British factoryoutput growth so far this year has slowed to a three-monthlyrate of 0.4 percent compared with a robust 1.3 percent in thelast three months of 2017, IHS Markit said.

"Growth in the manufacturing sector is moderating, now thatthe recovery in the euro zone has started to lose a little paceand more than 18 months have elapsed since sterling's hugedepreciation," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at PantheonMacroeconomics.

Surveys from the United States later on Thursday areexpected to confirm the strong momentum in global trade.

Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, in his first publicappearance since talking the helm at the U.S. central bank, saidthis week he aimed to prevent the economy from overheating,cementing market expectations for three or four interest rateincreases this year. central banks such as the Bank of England and Bank ofCanada have already raised interest rates and the ECB is widelyexpected to shut down its money printing presses by the end of2018. BOE/INT CA/POLL ECILT/EU

However, chances for rate hikes in Asia are far lower. of Japan board member Goushi Kataoka warned on Thursdayagainst a premature exit from the BOJ's ultra-loose monetarypolicy and called for a ramping up of the bank's massivestimulus programme. the full impact of China's crackdown on riskyfinancing probably has yet to be seen.

A private survey showed factory growth at a six-month high,but the findings were largely at odds with downbeat officialactivity readings on Wednesday, which raised concerns thattighter regulations may lead to a sharper slowdown in theworld's second biggest economy. firms service China's domestic demand more andtheir weaker showing may point to weakness stemming fromproperty-cooling measures, higher interest rates and tougherrules against risky financing, factors expected to weighthroughout the year.

Government measures to reduce pollution over the winter havealso led to cuts in production, economists said, while the LunarNew Year holidays disrupted activity, suggesting the slowdown insome of the economies could be temporary.

"These numbers imply that the low reading is likely drivenby holiday effects, rather than by any underlying slowdown incoming manufacturing activity," said Iris Pang, Greater Chinaeconomist at ING.

EXPORT HITS

Manufacturing was a relative bright spot for Britain'seconomy late last year but growth in overseas orders slowed toits weakest in four months in February.

Japanese manufacturing expanded at a slightly slower pace inFebruary as a stronger yen weighed on new export orders andTaiwan's factory growth was the slowest in four months, althoughboth economies still posted relatively solidnumbers. Korea's export growth slowed in February to itsweakest in more than a year. Japanese yen JPY= is currently trading around itsstrongest in more than a year, the Korean won KRW= in morethan three years and the Taiwanese dollar TWD= in more thanfive.

"For Asia, the strength of the currencies will have someimpact but generally how growth in the G3 economies fares ismore important," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

"We should continue to see a strong momentum in exportsgoing into the second half, when base effects come into play,"Goh said, cautioning against reading to much into theholiday-distorted numbers.

(Editing by Catherine Evans)

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