By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar stayed on the defensive on Tuesday as investors weighed the risk of further policy easing, including unconventional stimulus steps, while the New Zealand dollar drew support from upbeat local data.
The Aussie was stuck at $0.6776 AUD=D3 having come within a whisker of breaching major support at the November low of $0.6770. A break there would likely see a relapse to at least the $0.6710/24 buffer zone.
The kiwi dollar NZD=D3 again outperformed by holding at $0.6417, having found solid support at $0.6395.
That divergence saw the Aussie slip below its 200-day moving average against the kiwi to reach NZ$1.0560 AUDNZD= , near its lowest since late August.
The kiwi got a boost from data showing retail sales volumes surged a surprisingly strong 1.6% in the third quarter, thanks in part to spending on electronic gadgets.
"Today's strong retail spending result supports our view that New Zealand's economic cycle is starting to turn," said Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod.
"Low interest rates are boosting the housing market, and that in turn is boosting spending appetites. Combined with increases in government spending, we expect to see retail spending continuing to lift through late 2019 and 2020."
Such a turn could lessen the need for another cut in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), with market now implying only a 26% chance of a move at the next policy meeting on Feb. 12. RBNZWATCH
Futures, in contrast, imply a 66% chance 0#YIB: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut in February given recent disappointing data on jobs and wages.
The risk was underlined by RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle on Tuesday, who warned that wage growth had become entrenched in a low 2-3% range and unemployment would need to fall further to get it up. are wagering it will take further stimulus to achieve this goal and are fully priced for a rate cut to 0.5% by the middle of next year.
There has also been mounting speculation policy makers will be forced to consider quantitative easing, a subject RBA Governor Philip Lowe will speak about later on Tuesday.
"In our view QE would include a suite of measures: forward guidance, the purchase of Commonwealth and State-govt bonds and operating in the short-term money markets to lower the costs of funding to the banks and, ultimately, borrowers," said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at CBA.
"The risk is that a move to QE would place downward pressure on AUD/USD and, indeed, the RBA would likely be happy with this outcome."
Bond market bulls would also be pleased given the RBA would likely need to buy a sizable chunk of the relatively limited debt on issue.
The three-year bond futures YTTc1 were firm at 99.265, having bounced from a low of 99.070 touched earlier this month. The 10-year contract YTCc1 edged up to 98.9100, implying an yield of 1.09%.
(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)