Steel Dynamics stock has upside from future EBITDA gains and strong FCF - JPMorgan

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 09/09/2024, 05:36 pm
STLD
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On Monday, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) revised its stance on Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD), shifting the stock rating from Underweight to Neutral. Accompanying the upgrade, the firm also increased the price target to $131.00 from the previous $120.00. The adjustment reflects a more favorable view of the company's diversified operations compared to its blast furnace peers.


The firm's analysts highlighted Steel Dynamics' current valuation, noting that the shares are trading at 7.5 times the projected 2025 earnings, as per Bloomberg consensus estimates. This valuation sits below the one-year average but above the five-year average, which are 8.3 times and 6.5 times, respectively. Despite a year-to-date (YTD) decline of just 6% in Steel Dynamics' shares, this performance is notably better than the 20-45% YTD drops experienced by some of its peers.


Looking ahead to 2026, the analysts see the company's shares trading at approximately 6.7 times the expected earnings, which they consider reasonable. This outlook is based on anticipated incremental EBITDA from the company's aluminum rolling mill that is currently under construction and a forecast of reduced capital expenditure requirements.


JPMorgan projects an 8.7% free cash flow yield for Steel Dynamics in fiscal year 2026, an improvement from the 5.3% yield expected in fiscal year 2025. This projection is part of the rationale behind the positive adjustment in the stock's rating and price target.


In other recent news, Steel Dynamics Inc. announced a third-quarter dividend of $0.46 per share, reflecting its ongoing financial strategies and commitment to shareholder value. The company also reported strong financial and operational performance in the second quarter of 2024, with revenues of $4.6 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $686 million.


As part of its growth strategy, Steel Dynamics commissioned four new value-added flat rolled steel coating lines and reported shipments of 3.2 million tons for the quarter.


On the aluminum front, the company is making progress with its investments, expecting to turn EBITDA positive in the latter half of 2025. Despite a decline in steel pricing and increased uncertainty in the steel market, Steel Dynamics remains optimistic about steel demand and pricing dynamics for 2024, and sees strong market potential in Mexico for high-value products.


These recent developments indicate the company's strategic advancements and robust financial foundation. With a focus on sustainability and carbon reduction strategies, Steel Dynamics continues to leverage its low carbon footprint for a competitive edge. The company maintains its commitment to delivering on its promises to customers, shareholders, and the broader market.


InvestingPro Insights


As JPMorgan adjusts its perspective on Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD), investors may find additional insights from InvestingPro valuable. The company's aggressive share buyback strategy, as indicated by InvestingPro Tips, underlines management's confidence in the company's financial health. Furthermore, Steel Dynamics' commitment to rewarding shareholders is evident, with a history of raising its dividend for 11 consecutive years and maintaining payments for 21 years, signaling a robust and stable financial position.


InvestingPro Data shows a market capitalization of $17.13 billion, with a compelling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.85, which is even more attractive when adjusted for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, at 8.51. The company's revenue stands at $18.15 billion for the same period, although it has seen a decline of 11.27% year-over-year, reflecting the challenges in the industry. Despite this, the return on assets at 13.68% demonstrates efficient use of company resources.


For those seeking a deeper dive, InvestingPro offers additional tips on Steel Dynamics, which can be found at https://www.investing.com/pro/STLD. These tips can provide investors with a more nuanced understanding of the company's financials and future prospects.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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