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UPDATE 9-Oil retreats after pre-OPEC rally; Brent dips, U.S. crude steady

Published 01/12/2015, 06:20 am
© Reuters.  UPDATE 9-Oil retreats after pre-OPEC rally; Brent dips, U.S. crude steady
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* Rally fizzles after pre-OPEC hedging, products strength

* Market weighed by Reuters survey on higher OPEC output

* Dollar's rise to 8-month highs another negative factor

* Brent, WTI head for 10 pct drop in November (New throughout as market reverses early gains)

By Barani Krishnan

NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Brent futures edged lower while U.S. crude gave back much of its earlier gains on Monday as a pre-OPEC-meeting rally and run-up in U.S. refined oil products faltered.

A Reuters survey that estimated higher OPEC production in November, after a rise in Saudi Arabian output, also weighed on market sentiment. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N13P3WZ

Another negative factor was the dollar's surge to an 8-month high .DXY , which weakened demand for dollar-denominated oil from holders of the euro and other currencies. USD/

Brent LCOc1 was down 20 cents at $44.66 a barrel as of 1:59 p.m. EST (1859 GMT), after rising nearly $1 earlier.

WTI was up 1 cent at $41.72, versus a session high at $42.61.

On November's last trading session, Brent and WTI looked set to end the month down about 10 percent as a global supply glut showed little signs of diminishing.

Few traders and investors expect any material change to OPEC's production policy when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries convenes in Vienna on Friday. Still, some had hedged earlier on Monday for the possibility of a surprise.

"We feel the only real hope for oil bulls now would be a year-end destocking of crude that will create draws," said Tariq Zahir of New York's Tyche Capital Advisors, which has a bearish position on WTI.

"Even if we get a bounce in any fashion, that will be prime opportunity for bears like me to try and ride the elevator down to the $30 handle."

OPEC is determined to keep pumping oil vigorously despite the resulting financial strain even on the policy's chief architect, Saudi Arabia, alarming weaker members who fear prices may slump further towards $20. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N13J2KU

Any policy U-turn would be possible only if large producers outside the exporters' group, like Russia, were to join coordinated output cuts. Russia's Energy Ministry said Monday it would not attend this week's meeting, but expects an experts-level discussion with OPEC in mid-December. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N13P3DH

Russia is, meanwhile, drilling for more oil, according to data suggesting the No. 1 producer was ready for a long tussle with OPEC over market share. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N13N0BN

Iran, once the second-largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia, hopes to raise crude exports by as much as 1 million barrels per day within months of having sanctions against its nuclear program lifted. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N13N0AP

U.S. gasoline futures RBc1 were down nearly half a percent, while ultralow sulfur diesel (ULSD) HOc1 lost almost 1 percent. Both rallied earlier as their front-month contracts headed for expiry.

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