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UPDATE 1-Iron ore set for biggest weekly fall since July

Published 18/09/2015, 05:23 pm
© Reuters.  UPDATE 1-Iron ore set for biggest weekly fall since July

* Iron ore down nearly 3 pct on week

* Dalian ore futures hit 1-1/2 week low, Shanghai rebar slips (Updates futures)

By Manolo Serapio Jr

MANILA, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Iron ore is headed for its sharpest weekly drop in 10, having pulled back from recent highs with no signals of a firm pick-up in China's steel demand at the start of a seasonally brisk consumption period.

Expectations of more supply coming through to the global market should keep iron ore under pressure through the remainder of the year, analysts say.

"We expect to see some weakness into the year-end despite what is normally a fairly positive seasonal trend in terms of (Chinese) steel production, that we don't think will be as strong as previous years," said Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.

"And with further supply growth coming in, it's likely to keep some downward pressure on prices."

Steel demand in China, the world's biggest consumer, typically picks up from September along with construction work after the summer lull. But a slowing economy has hit industrial activity, with steel consumption continuing to shrink this year after falling in 2014 for the first time since 1981.

Iron ore for immediate delivery to China's Tianjin port .IO62-CNI=SI climbed 1.4 percent to $56.80 a tonne on Thursday after a three-day retreat.

But the spot benchmark was still down nearly 3 percent so far for the week, on track for its biggest weekly loss since the week ended July 10. The price was below a 10-week high of $58.50 touched on Sept. 10.

Among new supply coming in before the year ends is the $10 billion Roy Hill iron ore project in Australia, scheduled to start up next month. The project is slated to ramp up to its full annual capacity of 55 million tonnes over 30 months. ID:nL3N1072DL

Since recovering from a decade-low of $44.10 a tonne in July, iron ore has been largely stuck between $55 and $58 in recent weeks.

"There's no clear view across the market and certainly market participants were not willing to put on any aggressive positioning as well either way," said ANZ's Hynes.

But given expectations of softer-than-usual seasonal steel demand in China and the risk of additional supply, ANZ expects iron ore to average at $50 a tonne in October-December.

Iron ore is "certainly susceptible" to dipping again below $50, said Hynes.

Iron ore for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange DCIOcv1 fell 1.7 percent to close at 388 yuan ($61) a tonne, after touching a 1-1/2 week low of 387 yuan.

January rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SRBcv1 slipped 0.7 percent to 1,922 yuan a tonne.

Rebar and iron ore prices at 0704 GMT

Contract

Last

Change Pct Change SHFE REBAR JAN6

1922

-13.00

-0.67 DALIAN IRON ORE DCE DCIO JAN6

388

-6.50

-1.65 SGX IRON ORE FUTURES OCT

53.65

-0.20

-0.37 THE STEEL INDEX 62 PCT INDEX

56.8

+0.80

+1.43 METAL BULLETIN INDEX

57.37

+0.16

+0.28

Dalian iron ore and Shanghai rebar in yuan/tonne Index in dollars/tonne, show close for the previous trading day ($1 = 6.3620 Chinese yuan)

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