* Mild winter weigh on northern hemisphere coal demand
* Coal prices have fallen 80 pct since 2008
* Long-term outlook for coal also bleak
* Coal prices to fall another 25 pct by 2020 - Macquarie
By Henning Gloystein
SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Thermal coal prices have fallen to or near decade lows due to a mild northern hemisphere winter, while forward contracts are weighed by the prospect of peaking demand for the fossil fuel.
European physical coal cargoes into Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp (ARA) GCLARAPDSMc1 closed at $49.30 per tonne on December 15, the first time on record it settled below $50.
"Demand for coal is weak in Europe due to warmer than average temperatures," brokerage Marex Spectron said.
Coal demand in the northern hemisphere usually peaks towards the end of the year as the cold and dark winter pushes up heating and electricity consumption.
Average temperatures in continental Europe are currently around 8 degrees Celsius, over twice the seasonal norm, and meteorologists expect conditions to remain warmer than usual for the rest of the year, Reuters data shows.
Marex Spectron said that it also saw weak demand for Chinese coal imports as it was cheaper for its utilities to burn domestic supplies.
Although prices for Australian cargoes from its Newcastle terminal GCLNWCPFBMc1 jumped 5 percent this week to $53.15 a tonne, they remain over a third below a 2015 peak from March.
South African coal cargo prices from its Richards Bay terminal have tumbled over 15 percent this month to $50.05 a tonne as traders unwind arbitrage deals.
Indian utilities, the main buyers of South African coal, snapped up cargoes from Richards Bay between September and November, taking advantage of a discount to other suppliers, gradually pushing up prices until they flipped into a premium that is now being sold down again. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N13R0N4
LONG-TERM DECLINE
Beyond weak immediate demand, analysts said coal's long-term outlook was also bearish, visible in benchmark API2 coal futures prices TRAPI2Yc1 now trading below $45 a tonne at levels not seen since 2003 and 80 percent below their 2008-peak, and Australian bank Macquarie said it expected coal prices to be lower in 2020 than they are now.
Around a third of all coal production is already unprofitable at current prices.
"We... see an 'anti-coal' trade emerging from the utilities angle, with exposure to silver (for photovoltaic cells) and uranium (for nuclear power) looking more preferable to thermal coal... which we see below current spot levels in 2020," Macquarie said.
The bank added that coal was "now past peak demand" and that prices would fall another 25 percent in the next five years.
The bank's average spot price forecast for Australian cargoes is for $49 a tonne next year and for $43 per tonne in 2017.
The average Newcastle spot cargo price this year has so far been $61.4 a tonne.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ CHART-European temperature outlook:
http://tmsnrt.rs/1MfVnpS CHART-Physical coal prices:
http://tmsnrt.rs/1MfXH0c CHART-Coal futures prices:
http://tmsnrt.rs/1MfY5f2
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Editing by Michael Perry)