* Weak Singapore futures before China reopens next week
* Spot iron ore rallies to 11-week high before holiday
* Rio CEO says not taking full use of 360 mln T capacity
By Manolo Serapio Jr
MANILA, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Iron ore futures and swaps in Singapore drifted lower this week in thin trading with China on Lunar New Year holiday, suggesting a near-8 percent rally in spot prices before the break was either a blip or would be tough to follow.
Spot iron ore scored its best week in nine months last week as traders took positions expecting a stronger market when the Chinese return next week. But analysts say many may end up disappointed.
The rally was a "temporary blip" as Chinese steel producers replenished stocks ahead of the holiday, said Mitchell Hugers, analyst at BMI Research.
"However, we expect this rally won't last as Chinese steel consumption will remain weak this year as the country's economy continues to decelerate," he said.
That will result in declining fixed-asset investment and a slowdown in construction, said Hugers, that will keep iron ore stockpiles at China's ports high as demand slows.
Iron ore for immediate delivery to China's Tianjin port .IO62-CNI=SI stood at $44.50 a tonne on Thursday, according to The Steel Index (TSI), the latest available data.
That was nearly flat from $44.70 on Feb. 5, the last trading day before the Chinese holiday, which was an 11-week high.
Those gains could reverse as Singapore iron ore futures 0#SZZF: and swaps 0#SGXIOS: slipped this week.
There are no trades so far on futures on Friday, but on Thursday iron ore for March delivery on the Singapore Exchange SZZFH6 fell 1.3 percent to $41.64 a tonne.
"Fundamentals still suggest an oversupplied iron ore market given that Chinese steel production is falling while exports of low-cost iron ore from Australia and Brazil will be rising over the coming years," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.
"Our outlook remains bearish," said Menke, who has a three-month iron ore price target of $40 and a 12-month target of $35.
The spot benchmark touched $37 in December, the weakest recorded by TSI since it began assessing iron ore prices in late 2008.
Amid falling iron ore prices, world No. 2 miner Rio Tinto (L:RIO) RIO.AX reported a net loss for 2015 and scrapped its generous dividend policy. of the weak market, Rio Chief Executive Sam Walsh said on Thursday there's no rush to reach the long-term iron ore output target of 360 million tonnes.
"Though we have announced we have 360 million tonnes of capacity in rail and port, at this stage, we're not taking full usage of that," Walsh told analysts on a webcast.
"This is really phasing the implementation to more match the market for iron ore."