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Iron ore heads for second weekly drop as China jitters mount

Published 15/01/2016, 02:21 pm
© Reuters.  Iron ore heads for second weekly drop as China jitters mount
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* Spot iron ore down 4.6 pct so far this week

* But Dalian ore futures extend gains in line with rebar

By Manolo Serapio Jr

MANILA, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Spot iron ore is heading for its second weekly decline, trading near its lowest level since at least 2008, amid expectations slow steel demand in top consumer China may lead to more production cutbacks, paring demand for the raw material.

A recovery in Chinese steel futures on Friday from a 2-1/2-week low, which helped boost Dalian iron ore futures, is seen as fleeting.

"We expect construction and infrastructure demand to remain weak during winter, ahead of the Chinese New Year," said Wang Di, analyst at CRU Group in Beijing, referring to the week-long holiday in early February.

Citigroup (N:C) expects Chinese steel demand to contract again this year.

"Despite the rally in steel prices, Chinese steel margins are not particularly strong and numerous mills continue to lose money," the bank said in a report on Thursday.

Iron ore for delivery to China's Tianjin port .IO62-CNI=SI gained 0.8 percent to $39.60 a tonne on Thursday, according to The Steel Index (TSI).

Despite Thursday's rise, the spot benchmark is down 4.6 percent for the week after earlier losses that pulled it back below $40 a tonne. It touched $37 on Dec. 11, the lowest price recorded by TSI since it began assessing prices in 2008.

The rebound in iron ore prices on Thursday was sentiment driven, said ANZ.

"However, the overcapacity in the steel market and current low prices is triggering a series of corporate credit downgrades. As such, prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term," the investment bank said in a note.

But gains in ferrous futures may help spot iron ore prices recover further on Friday and cut losses for the week. The most-traded May iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange DCIOcv1 was up 2.5 percent at 309 yuan ($47) a tonne by 0247 GMT.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, construction steel product rebar SRBcv1 rose 2 percent to 1,780 yuan per tonne.

"There has been no significant change in buying activities which just (signals) some downside risk to iron ore prices," said CRU's Wang.

Rebar and iron ore prices at 0247 GMT

Contract

Last

Change Pct Change SHFE REBAR MAY6

1780

+35.00

+2.01 DALIAN IRON ORE DCE DCIO MAY6

309

+7.50

+2.49 SGX IRON ORE FUTURES FEB

39.25

+0.52

+1.34 THE STEEL INDEX 62 PCT INDEX

39.60

+0.30

+0.76 METAL BULLETIN INDEX

40.22

+0.71

+1.80

Dalian iron ore and Shanghai rebar in yuan/tonne Index in dollars/tonne, show close for the previous trading day ($1 = 6.5853 Chinese yuan)

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