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Iron ore, steel slide in China as post-rally reluctance reigns

Published 09/03/2016, 03:02 pm
Updated 09/03/2016, 03:10 pm
© Reuters.  Iron ore, steel slide in China as post-rally reluctance reigns

* Dalian iron ore drops nearly 3 pct, Singapore ore down 6 pct

* Shanghai rebar fell as much as 5.2 pct

By Manolo Serapio Jr

MANILA, March 9 (Reuters) - Steel and iron ore futures in China slumped on Wednesday as investors cashed in on the recent rapid rise to multi-month highs that many thought was largely driven by speculative buying with no marked changes in supply-demand fundamentals.

Iron ore futures in Singapore also extended losses to a second session, with the most-active contract sliding nearly 6 percent.

A rally in Chinese steel prices fueled a 20-percent spike in the price of spot iron ore on Monday, its biggest single-day jump on record.

"The rally was largely distorted away from fundamentals which have slightly improved compared with end-2015 but not enough to support the rapid hike in prices," said Zhao Chaoyue, analyst with Merchant Futures in Shenzhen.

"I understand that end-users including house appliance and auto producers have already restocked by the end of last year and the pace of buying is slowing at the moment while demand from the property sector hasn't picked up yet," Zhao said on steel usage in top consuming market China.

Rebar, a construction steel product, fell as far as 2,035 yuan ($312) a tonne on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SRBcv1 and was down 3.5 percent at 2,071 yuan by midday.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded May iron ore DCIOcv1 fell 2.6 percent to 410.50 yuan a tonne. May iron ore on the Singapore Exchange SZZFK6 dropped 5.5 percent to $50.24 per tonne.

Investment bank ANZ said the weakness in steel and iron ore futures "will only add to the market's reluctance to buy into the sustainability of iron ore prices above $60".

Iron ore for immediate delivery to China's Tianjin port .IO62-CNI=SI rose 1.1 percent to $63.30 per tonne on Tuesday, its strongest since June 15, according to data compiled by The Steel Index (TSI).

The 19.5 percent rally in the spot benchmark on Monday was its biggest gain since TSI began assessing prices in 2008.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia also thinks the sharp increase in iron ore above $60 is unsustainable, predicting prices would recoil to $40-$45 in the short term.

"We currently forecast China's crude steel output to contract again this year due to weaker domestic consumption, with steel exports unlikely to provide any real offset as countries put up trade barriers on steel," the bank said in a note.

Rebar and iron ore prices at 0353 GMT

Contract

Last

Change Pct Change SHFE REBAR MAY6

2071

-76.00

-3.54 DALIAN IRON ORE DCE DCIO MAY6

410.5

-11.00

-2.61 SGX IRON ORE FUTURES MAY

50.24

-2.93

-5.51 THE STEEL INDEX 62 PCT INDEX

63.3

+0.70

+1.12 METAL BULLETIN INDEX

63.63

-0.11

-0.17

Dalian iron ore and Shanghai rebar in yuan/tonne Index in dollars/tonne, show close for the previous trading day ($1 = 6.5145 Chinese yuan)

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