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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: April 4 - 8

Published 03/04/2016, 07:19 pm
Updated 03/04/2016, 07:35 pm
© Reuters.  Gold declines after strong U.S. jobs report on Friday, but still posts weekly gain
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Investing.com - Gold prices lost 1% on Friday, as upbeat U.S. employment and manufacturing data sparked speculation the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates sooner and faster than expected.

Gold for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to an intraday low of $1,210.30 a troy ounce before paring losses to end the week at $1,223.50, down $12.10, or 0.98%.

The U.S. Labor Department reported Friday that the economy added 215,000 jobs last month, exceeding expectations for a gain of 205,000. Average hourly earnings increased by a more-than-expected 0.3%, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0% from an eight-year low of 4.9%, as more people entered the labor force.

Other pieces of data released Friday included the ISM manufacturing index for March, which came in above estimates at 51.8. Separately, the University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index hit 91.0 in March, up from a previously estimated reading of 90.0.

The upbeat data bolstered the argument that growth in the U.S. is strong enough for the Fed to raise interest rates in coming months.

Investors also digested hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. In prepared remarks, she said that the Fed should still raise interest rates gradually this year given the economy's resilience.

Despite Friday’s steep decline, gold prices ended the week with a gain of $1.90, or 0.24%, snapping a three-week losing streak.

Gold prices were up more than 2% earlier this week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen emphasized global dangers to growth and inflation, and thus the need to proceed "cautiously" on tightening policy.

The dovish comments were in direct contrast to recent hawkish remarks by other FOMC members, who suggested another move on interest rate may be just around the corner.

Prices of the yellow metal are up nearly 14% so far this year as expectations faded that the Fed would move to normalize interest rates due to fears over a China-led global economic slowdown.

The yellow metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, as a rise would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery tumbled 41.8 cents, or 2.7%, on Friday to settle at $15.04 a troy ounce after hitting a session low of $14.78, a level not seen since March 2. On the week, silver futures lost 11.0 cents, or 0.75%.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for May delivery shed 2.0 cents, or 0.92%, on Friday to end at a one-month low of $2.163 a pound. For the week, Comex copper prices slumped 6.9 cents, or 2.56%.

Market players shrugged off data showing that manufacturing activity in China swung into expansion territory for the first time since August this month.

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.2 in March from 49.0 the previous month. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to 49.3 this month.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 45% of world consumption.

In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

There are also more than a half-dozen Fed speakers on tap for the coming week, including comments by Fed Chair Yellen on Thursday.

Investors will also be looking ahead to U.S. data on service sector activity for further indications on the strength of the economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 4

The euro zone is to report on the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to release data on factory orders, while Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan are scheduled to speak throughout the day.

Tuesday, April 5

The U.S. is to release a report on the ISM non-manufacturing index as well as data on the trade balance.

Wednesday, April 6

The Fed is to issue the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan are slated to speak during the day.

Thursday, April 7

The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting. Later in the day, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak at an event in Portugal.

The U.S. is to release weekly data on initial jobless claims, while Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion at the International House, in New York.

Friday, April 8

Kansas City Fed President Esther George is due to speak about the U.S. economy, in Nebraska.

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