* Genesee & Wyoming counts on Asian coal demand growth
* Pacific National most at risk of losing market share
* Analysts say Genesee & Wyoming paid high price at $874 mln
By Sonali Paul
MELBOURNE, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Genesee & Wyoming GWR.N is gearing up to lure business away from Australia's top two coal haulers, confident there will be stronger demand for the commodity in Asia than in other regions, the chief financial officer of the U.S. rail group said.
The near doubling of Asian thermal coal prices GCLNWCWIDX this year in one of the steepest commodity rallies on record vindicates that optimism. & Wyoming group this week agreed to buy Glencore Plc's GLEN.L GRail arm in the coal-rich Hunter Valley for A$1.14 billion ($874 million), doubling the size of its Australian business and heating up competition against rail operators Pacific National and Aurizon AZJ.AX . now the third largest coal hauler in Australia and we certainly want to grow our business, so we will compete," CFO T.J. Gallagher told Reuters on Friday.
Under the deal, Genesee & Wyoming has acquired an exclusive contract to carry Glencore's coal for 20 years, an unusually long contract in a market where miners typically lock in deals for around five to 10 years.
GRail already hauls 40 million tonnes out of the 51 million tonnes a year that Glencore produces in the Hunter Valley, and will inherit the remainder of the tonnes when they roll off contracts with Pacific National.
Genesee & Wyoming plans to move some surplus locomotives from South Australia to New South Wales to chase new business and spend about A$100 million to buy two more train sets to handle the extra tonnages expected from Glencore.
"It's an extra entrant, so it's not ideal (for Aurizon and Pacific National)," said Omkar Joshi, a Watermark Funds analyst.
"Pacific National is the one that's got the bigger risk. They're going to keep losing those volumes."
Aurizon has locked in some longer-term contracts, including one with BHP Billiton BLT.L BHP.AX out to 2028, so is under less threat, Macquarie said in a research note.
CONFIDENT ON RETURNS
Genesee & Wyoming has seen its U.S. coal volumes halved in the past two years and its UK coal volumes slump more rapidly than expected, but is confident it will not suffer the same fate with Australian coal, given strong Asian demand.
Asia dominates global coal use, accounting for around 80 percent of all new coal-fired power station construction.
Analysts say Genesee & Wyoming - which outbid Aurizon and Pacific National - paid a fat price for GRail at 11.4 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. By comparison, Aurizon is trading at 8.8 times EBITDA.
Aurizon said in an email it "took a disciplined commercial approach to the bid", adding that it had invested A$500 million over the past decade to build its business in the Hunter Valley.
Pacific National, which recently was bought out by a group of funds, declined to comment on the sale.
Gallagher, however, said he was confident the business would make a return on its investment, even if nations made good on pledges to cut carbon emissions sharply, thereby denting demand for dirty coal.
"It's certainly a scenario you have to consider, but that was factored into the overall decision," he said.