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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: September 19 - 23

Published 18/09/2016, 07:23 pm
© Reuters.  U.S. oil logs weekly loss of more than 6%
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Investing.com - Oil futures fell sharply on Friday, with U.S. crude prices touching a more than five-week low as signs of an ongoing recovery in U.S. drilling activity combined with increasing exports from OPEC added to concerns over a global supply glut.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in October sank to a daily low of $42.74 a barrel, a level not seen since August 11. It ended at $43.03 by close of trade, down 88 cents, or 2%, on the day.

For the week, New York-traded oil futures dropped $2.54, or 6.2%, the third weekly loss over the past four weeks.

Market players continued to focus on U.S. drilling prospects, amid indications of a recent recovery in drilling activity. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week rose by 2 to 416, marking the 11th increase in 12 weeks.

That came after government data published on Wednesday showed large weekly builds in U.S. petroleum products.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, distillate inventories including diesel, increased by 4.619 million barrels last week, much higher than expectations for a rise of 1.543 million barrels.

The jump was the biggest weekly build since January and put distillate stocks at six-year seasonal highs.

The report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 567,000 barrels, disappointing expectations for a 343,000-barrel drop.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for November delivery slumped 82 cents, or 1.76%, on Friday to settle at $45.77 a barrel by close of trade. The contract slid to $45.48 earlier, the lowest since September 2.

For the week, London-traded Brent futures declined $2.04, or 4.67%, amid growing concerns over the possibility of returning crude supplies from Libya and Nigeria.

Libya and Nigeria are both members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Increased production from the two countries could upset efforts by the oil group to cap output in order to rebalance the market.

Swelling Iranian exports further reinforced fears of a global glut. The third-biggest OPEC producer raised crude exports to more than 2 million barrels per day in August, nearing pre-sanctions levels.

Attention now shifts to the forthcoming meeting between major oil producers later in September to discuss an output freeze.

OPEC members, led by Saudi Arabia and other big Middle East crude exporters, will meet non-OPEC producers led by Russia at informal talks in Algeria between September 26 and 28.

According to market experts, chances that the meeting would yield any action to reduce the global glut appeared minimal. Instead, most believe that oil producers will continue to monitor the market and possibly postpone freeze talks to the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on November 30.

An attempt to jointly freeze production levels earlier this year failed after Saudi Arabia backed out over Iran's refusal to take part of the initiative, underscoring the difficulty for political rivals to forge consensus.

In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.

Market players will also continue to monitor developments before the informal meeting of major oil producing countries next week.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, September 20

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, September 21

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Friday, September 23

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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