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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: November 16 - 20

Published 15/11/2015, 11:32 pm
© Reuters.  Oil futures log 8% weekly drop, largest since March
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Investing.com - Oil prices sank to 11-week lows on Friday, as mostly bearish outlooks for supply and demand and for the global economy remained on investors' minds.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for January delivery shed 72 cents, or 1.59%, to close the week at $44.47 a barrel on Friday. It earlier fell to $44.16, the weakest level since August 26.

A day earlier, Brent tumbled $1.42, or 3.05%, as ongoing concerns over a global supply glut weighed.

For the week, London-traded Brent futures dropped $3.85, or 8.03%, the largest weekly loss since March.

In its monthly report for October, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said global crude inventories stood at a record near 3 billion barrels by the end of September, amid record supply in Iraq, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The agency also said global demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.2 million barrels a day in 2016 after surging to 1.8 million barrels a day this year.

In its own October monthly report released Thursday, OPEC largely maintained its forecasts for oil demand growth and supply for this year and next. The oil cartel said surplus oil inventories are at the highest level in at least a decade because of increased global production.

The report is the last to come before OPEC's meeting in Vienna on December 4. The oil cartel is largely expected to keep production levels steady above 30 million barrels per day, despite ongoing concerns over ample global supplies.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December slumped $1.01, or 2.42%, to end Friday's session at $40.74 a barrel. Prices hit an intraday low of $40.22 earlier, a level not seen since August 27.

Industry research group Baker Hughes (N:BHI) said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by 2 last week to 574, the first weekly rise in almost three months.

On Thursday, Nymex prices plunged $1.18, or 2.75%, after data showed that oil supplies in the U.S. rose for the seventh consecutive week, remaining near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.

New York-traded oil futures lost $3.78, or 8.02%, on the week, the biggest weekly drop in eight months.

The oil market has been on the defensive in recent months amid uncertainty about how quickly the global glut of crude is set to shrink.

Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil production and after a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production.

In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting for fresh indications on the prospects of a December rate hike.

Market players will also be looking ahead to U.S. data on inflation, building permits and manufacturing activity for further clues on the strength of the economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 16

Japan is to release preliminary data on third quarter growth.

The euro zone is to publish revised data on consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in the New York region.

Tuesday, November 17

In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

The U.S. is to release reports on inflation and industrial production. Later in the day, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on oil supplies.

Wednesday, November 18

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is to speak at an event in New York.

The U.S. is to release data on building permits, housing starts as well as a weekly government report on crude oil inventories.

Later in the day, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.

Thursday, November 19

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The ECB is to publish the minutes of its latest meeting.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, November 20

ECB head Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.

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