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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: May 9 - 13

Published 08/05/2016, 07:04 pm
Updated 08/05/2016, 07:14 pm
© Reuters.  Oil futures settle higher on Friday, but snap streak of 4 weekly gains in a row
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Investing.com - Oil futures inched up on Friday, as a huge wildfire in Canada disrupted its oil sands production.

Nearly one million barrels per day of Canada's crude production capacity had been taken offline as of Friday as the wildfires ravaged the oil town of Fort McMurray in Alberta and forced evacuation of workers and precautionary production cuts or shutdowns at about a dozen major facilities. Fort McMurray is the center of Canada's oil sands region.

Despite Friday’s gains, oil prices ended the week lower as concerns over a global supply glut lingered.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in June tacked on 34 cents, or 0.77%, to end the week at $44.66 a barrel. For the week, however, New York-traded oil futures slumped $1.24, or 2.74%, snapping a four-week win streak.

Nymex oil prices are up nearly 55% since falling to 13-year lows at $26.05 on February 11, as a decline in U.S. shale production boosted sentiment. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said Friday the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by four last week to 328, a fresh six-year low. At this time last year, drillers were operating 668 oil rigs.

However, analysts warned that market conditions remained weak due to an ongoing glut. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.8 million barrels last week to a record-high of 543.4 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery inched up 36 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $45.37 a barrel.

Brent was pushed higher amid reports of a militant attack on a Chevron-operated offshore oil facility in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta region as well as news of escalating fighting in Libya.

Despite Friday’s modest gains, London-traded Brent futures fell $2.00, or 5.73%, on the week, the first weekly loss in five weeks.

Brent futures prices are up by roughly 60% since briefly dropping below $30 a barrel in mid-February, despite the collapse of talks at a Doha summit in April aimed at achieving a production freeze among OPEC and Non-OPEC producers. OPEC meets on June 2 in Vienna and may discuss the freeze initiative again.

Meanwhile, Brent's premium to the West Texas Intermediate crude contract stood at $1.45, compared to a gap of $1.74 by close of trade on Thursday.

In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.

Market participants will also keep an eye out for monthly reports from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties to gauge global supply and demand levels.

Meanwhile, news that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, on Saturday appointed Khalid al-Falih, chairman of the state oil giant Saudi Aramco, as its new energy minister, replacing Ali al-Naimi, who had held the post since 1995, will also be in focus. The change is unlikely to mean a shift in Saudi oil policy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 9

Germany is to release data on factory orders.

Tuesday, May 10

China is to release data on consumer and producer price inflation.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, May 11

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, May 12

The International Energy Agency will release its monthly report on global oil supply and demand.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, May 13

The euro zone and Germany are to publish preliminary data on first quarter economic growth.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on retail sales, producer price inflation and consumer sentiment, while Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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