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Crude Oil Futures - Weekly Outlook: March 20 - 24

Published 19/03/2017, 10:00 pm
© Reuters.  Oil prices score first weekly gain in three
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Investing.com - Oil futures settled a few pennies higher on Friday, tallying their first weekly gain in three weeks amid expectations that global crude producers will extend their agreement to cut output beyond June.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude April contract inched up 3 cents to $48.78 a barrel by close of trade Friday, bouncing back after hitting its weakest since November 30 at $47.09 on Tuesday.

For the week, the U.S. benchmark rose 29 cents, or around 0.6%, snapping a two-week losing streak.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for May delivery tacked on 2 cents to settle at $51.76 a barrel by close of trade. The global benchmark fell to $50.25 on Tuesday, its cheapest since November 30.

London-traded Brent futures recorded a gain of 39 cents, or about 0.8%, on the week, the first weekly increase in three.

Oil found some support after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Thursday the cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries could be extended beyond June if stockpiles stayed above a long-term average.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers such as Russia agreed in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next six months, but so far the move has had little impact on inventory levels.

OPEC's latest monthly report showed global oil stocks in January rose to 278 million barrels above the five-year average.

A poll of market analysts showed on Friday that OPEC will have to extend its oil output curbs as a revival in crude production outside the group, specifically in the U.S., may scupper its efforts to erode an overhang of unused inventory.

Data from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes on Friday revealed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 14 last week, the ninth weekly increase in a row.

That brought the total count to 631, the most since September 2015, underlining concerns that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand.

Oil tumbled to the lowest level since November at the start of the week after a report showed Saudi Arabia raised output back above 10 million barrels a day in February, underlining concerns over a global supply glut.

Prices then turned rebounded on Wednesday after U.S. government data revealed the first decline for domestic crude stockpiles in 10 weeks.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for April inched up 0.4 cents, or about 0.3% to $1.598 on Friday. It ended down less than 0.1% for the week.

April heating oil added 0.4 cents to finish at $1.508 a gallon. For the week, the fuel gained roughly 0.3%.

Natural gas futures for April delivery rose 4.6 cents, or almost 1.6%, to $2.948 per million British thermal units. It posted a weekly loss of around 2%.

In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Meanwhile, traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, March 21

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, March 22

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, March 23

The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, March 24

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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