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Crude Oil Futures - Weekly Outlook: June 26 - 30

Published 25/06/2017, 07:38 pm
© Reuters.  Oil marks longest streak of weekly declines since 2015
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Investing.com - Oil futures settled a bit higher on Friday, but prices still suffered their fifth straight weekly loss as the market weighed rising U.S. drilling against ongoing efforts by major producers to cut output to reduce a global glut.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude August contract inched up 27 cents, or around 0.6%, to end at $43.01 a barrel by close of trade Friday. It touched its lowest since August 11 at $42.05 on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for August delivery advanced 32 cents to settle at $45.54 a barrel by close of trade, after hitting $44.35 on Wednesday, a level not seen since November 14.

For the week, WTI lost $1.73, or about 3.9%, while Brent fell $1.67, or roughly 3.8%. Both have now posted losses five weeks in a row, which marks the longest weekly losing streak since August 2015.

Oil prices are down about 20% so far this year, the biggest first-half percentage fall since 1997.

Crude reached bear-market territory on Wednesday amid concern that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production is derailing efforts by other major producers to rebalance the market.

Data from energy services company Baker Hughes showed on Friday that U.S. drillers last week added rigs for the 23rd week in a row, the longest such streak on record, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead.

The U.S. rig count rose by 11 to 758, extending a year-long drilling recovery to the highest level since April 2015.

The increase in U.S. drilling activity and shale production has mostly offset efforts by OPEC and other producers to cut output in a move to prop up the market.

In May, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018.

A monitoring committee made up of OPEC members and producers outside the group on Thursday said compliance to the deal reached 106% in May, the highest since the deal was first clinched late last year.

So far, the production-cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, and a relentless increase in U.S. shale oil output.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for July ended nearly flat at $1.434 on Friday, for a weekly loss of about 1.4%.

July heating oil also finished virtually unchanged at $1.372 a gallon, with a decline of around 3.9% on the week.

Natural gas futures for July delivery rose 3.5 cents to settle at $2.929 per million British thermal units. It saw a weekly loss of roughly 3.6%.

In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Meanwhile, traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, June 27

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, June 28

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, June 29

The U.S. government is set to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, June 30

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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