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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: January 4 - 8

Published 04/01/2016, 12:26 am
Updated 04/01/2016, 12:30 am
© Reuters.  Oil prices end 2015 down sharply on oversupply woes
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Investing.com - Oil prices rose in light trade ahead of the New Year holiday on Thursday, but ended the year sharply lower as an unprecedented global supply glut continued to weigh on the market.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in February settled at $37.08 a barrel at the close, bringing monthly losses to 11% and yearly losses to 30%. It was the second straight annual loss for the first time since 1998.

Global benchmark Brent settled at $37.61 a barrel, but ended down 16% for the month and down 35% for the year, the third straight annual decline.

Oil prices have been hit by robust U.S. shale output and a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries not to cut production, leaving members pumping crude at near record levels into an already oversupplied market.

The U.S. has also repealed a 40-year ban on U.S. crude exports to countries outside Canada and markets are bracing for the return of Iranian crude exports after Western sanctions against Tehran are lifted.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that inventories of crude oil in the U.S. stand near eight-decade highs.

In its weekly supply report released on Wednesday the EIA said crude oil stockpiles increased by 2.6 million barrels to 487.4 million barrels in the week to December 25, compared with expectations for a decline of 1 million barrels on the week.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to supply data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s weekly government report on stockpiles.

Monday, January 4

China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing index.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to release survey data on manufacturing sector activity.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Managements is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, January 5

Germany and Spain are to release data on the change in the number of people employed. The wider euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to release data on construction sector activity.

Wednesday, January 6

China is to publish its Caixin services index.

The U.K. is to release survey data on service sector activity.

Both the U.S. and Canada are to release data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is also to release the monthly ADP nonfarm payrolls report, the ISM report on service sector growth and data on factory orders. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its December meeting.

Thursday, January 7

Australia is to release reports on building approvals and the trade balance.

Germany is to publish data on factory orders and retail sales. The wider euro area is to report on the unemployment rate.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Ottawa.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 8

Australia is to publish data on retail sales.

The U.K. is to report on the trade balance.

Canada is to publish its monthly employment report along with data on building permits.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report.

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