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Australian coal soars to premium of more than $10 over Europe

Published 12/09/2016, 01:45 pm
Updated 12/09/2016, 01:50 pm
© Reuters.  Australian coal soars to premium of more than $10 over Europe
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* Newcastle coal prices at $70 per tonne, Europe below $60

* Coal exporters with access to Atlantic, Pacific to benefit

* Asia coal price rally was boosted by China mining caps

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Sept 12 (Reuters) - A 40-percent rally since June in prices for Australian thermal coal due to a jump in Chinese imports has pushed its premium over Europe to more than $10, offering miners with easy access to the Atlantic and Pacific basins opportunities for arbitrage.

Australian cargoes from its Newcastle terminal GCLNWCPFBMc1 , a benchmark for Asia/Pacific, currently cost $70 per tonne, levels last seen over a year ago.

At the same time, European import prices into Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp (ARA) are at just $58 a tonne GCLARAPDSMc1 due to strong competition from renewables and cheap natural gas.

Traders said that the huge price spread between Europe and the Pacific meant that exporters with access to both basins could benefit from arbitrage opportunities.

"If you're a Colombian miner, who can ship coal through the Panama Canal to Asia, or you're South African, which enjoys easy access to Europe and Asia, then the big price difference between ARA and Newcastle, as well as cheap freight, are an arbitrage opportunity you might want to look into," said a coal shipper with a big trading house. He declined to be identified as he was not authorised to speak with media.

Thomson Reuters Eikon data shows that export prices from Colombia, known as Bolivar, are trading slightly below $60 per tonne, and South African prices from its Richards Bay export terminal GCLRCBPFBMc1 are worth around $63 a tonne.

Although benchmark dry-bulk freight rates used for coal .BADI have risen away from their historic lows earlier this year, at just over 800 points they remain far below their historic average of over 1,900 points.

The Australian price rise is a result of a regulatory change in China, where the annual hours miners can operate were cut to 276 a year from 330 last April in a bid to reduce rampant overcapacity and industrial smog.

"The strong rebound in key Asian thermal coal reference prices since the beginning of this year is a function of the Chinese government's regulations surrounding supply management," Fitch Ratings said in a note to investors late on Friday.

The lower domestic output spurred imports towards the middle of the year and took the market by surprise. has ... enjoyed a strong run ... (and) trading well above Macquarie Commodities teams' forecasts for the next two years," Australian bank Macquarie said.

Despite the jump in Chinese imports, some traders said the price rally had been overblown.

"There's been a bit of a squeeze in Newcastle, as some miners take advantage of the bump from China. But with overall coal demand timid, I don't think Newcastle will stay at such a premium over other benchmarks for long, and instead will pull back," said another coal trader.

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