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Australia raises 2016/17 wheat forecast after autumn rains

Published 15/06/2016, 12:01 am
© Reuters.  Australia raises 2016/17 wheat forecast after autumn rains

SYDNEY, June 15 (Reuters) - Australia on Wednesday raised its forecast for wheat production during the 2016/17 season as favourable weather in key growing regions drive production to a four-year high in the world's fourth largest exporter.

Production of wheat, Australia's largest winter crop, for the season ending July 1, 2017 is now expected at 25.4 million tonnes, said the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

The previous estimate in March was 24.5 million tonnes.

If the latest forecast is achieved, 2016/17 would see Australia's biggest annual production since 2012/13.

Higher wheat output from Australia will add pressure on global prices Wv1 , which last week hit a seven-month high on concerns over the outlook for the U.S. crop.

Australia has seen near ideal crop weather in its biggest grain producing region of Western Australia in recent weeks, while the end of the strongest El Nino in nearly 20 years has aided crops on the country's east coast.

"The latest report forecasts a 7 percent rise in total winter crop production, which is expected to reach 42.3 million tonnes, largely as a result of an increase in average crop yields," said Karen Schneider, an executive director at ABARES.

Australia's wheat production will also be aided if a La Nina weather event materialises. The weather event which typically brings wetter than average conditions across the Australian east coast would boost yields.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology last week pegged the chance of a La Nina at 50 percent.

ABARES said canola production during the 2016/17 season will hit 3.20 million tonnes, from its previous estimate of 3.27 million tonnes.

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