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Australia's ABARES raises 2016/17 wheat forecast by 14.6 percent

Published 13/09/2016, 12:01 am
© Reuters.  Australia's ABARES raises 2016/17 wheat forecast by 14.6 percent

By Colin Packham

SYDNEY, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Australia on Monday raised its forecast for wheat production for the 2016/17 season by 14.6 percent as near ideal conditions across the world's fourth-largest exporter continue to raise expectations for a near-record harvest.

Wheat production during the 2016/17 season will total 28.08 million tonnes, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said, up from a forecast in June for 24.51 million tonnes.

The raised forecast is in line with a Reuters survey of 10 analysts and traders who said they were expecting an Australian wheat harvest of 28 million tonnes. the forecast level is hit, it would be Australia's second-biggest wheat crop ever, just shy of a record set in 2011/12 at 29.6 million tonnes.

A large Australian wheat crop - in a global market already flush with supplies following bumper output in the Northern Hemisphere - could further drag on global benchmark prices for the grain and ensure cheap food supplies for Asian buyers.

U.S. wheat prices Wv1 fell to a 10-year low at the end of August after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its estimate for global end-stocks for the 2016/17 crop year to a historic high of 252.8 million tonnes. GRA/

The USDA is due on Monday to update its forecast for end-season global wheat stocks.

The increased output from Australia comes amid weather patterns that have brought near perfect conditions to the country's largest growing region of Western Australia and put an end to dry weather that has plagued farmers on its east coast for more than three years.

Australia's largest wheat exporter Cooperative Bulk Handling Ltd last month said it was building emergency storage to hold the grain expected as a result of the bumper production.

ABARES also said canola production during the 2016/17 season will total 3.63 million tonnes, up from a previous estimate for 3.2 million tonnes.

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