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After dryness, Australian wheat crop faces threat of heavy rain

Published 30/10/2015, 07:10 pm
After dryness, Australian wheat crop faces threat of heavy rain

* Rains seen hitting quality of Australian wheat crop

* Meteorologists forecast 200 mm of rainfall in NSW

* Follows dry weather in Sept, above average temps in Oct

By Naveen Thukral and Colin Packham

SINGAPORE/SYDNEY, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Australia's wheat crop could face quality downgrades as parts of the country's eastern grain belt are forecast to receive heavy rains in the days ahead, potentially damaging the crop which is ready for harvest.

Dry weather in September and above average temperatures this month have already curbed yields of high-protein Australian prime hard wheat in the world's fourth largest exporter of the grain.

Global wheat prices Wv1 have rallied to a two-week high on concerns over dry weather in the Black Sea region and the United States. Any crop-damage to Australian wheat could further fuel rising prices.

"There is a lot of rain forecast in New South Wales and it may even get into Victoria," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

"The harvest is in full swing, for sure it will be damaging if the rain that is forecast comes."

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast as much as 200 millimetres of rain could hit parts of New South Wales - the country's second largest wheat producing state, over the next five days.

The forecast pushed local futures prices YVWc1 up 4.2 percent this week, although one trader said they had risen too far.

"There is some big total (rainfall) forecast in some spots," said a Melbourne-based grains trader, who spoke on condition of not being named as he is not authorised to talk to the media.

"There is some overreaction to this especially without any rains hitting the ground."

Top importers of Australian wheat, including the world's second largest buyer Indonesia, could be forced to ship more grain from the United States or Canada if Australia's grain belt takes a hit.

The outlook for rains has revived memories of 2011 when harvest-ready wheat was hit by storms, reducing about half of the crop on the country's east coast to feed quality grain.

Extreme weather has wiped out 1-2 million tonnes of the Australian wheat crop in less than a month, a Reuters survey showed earlier in October. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N1281ZC

Production prospects on the west coast have also been dulled. Australia's largest wheat exporter on Friday revised down its production estimate from the west coast by more than 7 percent after recent bouts of hail and frost. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N12U2I0

Chicago wheat climbed on Friday to hit its highest since Oct. 14, with the market poised for its biggest weekly gain in four months. GRA/

Dry weather in parts of the United States, Russia and Ukraine has been underpinning the market.

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