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Guggenheim maintains Buy on Dynatrace with $64 target

Published 08/11/2024, 06:34 am
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On Thursday, Guggenheim reiterated its Buy rating on Dynatrace Inc. (NYSE:DT) with a price target of $64.00. The firm's analysis highlighted the company's substantial performance in key second-quarter metrics and total revenue, which exceeded expectations due to strong expansions and consistent net revenue retention (NRR) at 112%. The report noted an increase in end-to-end observability deals compared to the previous year and a healthy number of deals for the company's Digital Performance Solutions (DPS), which now accounts for nearly half of Dynatrace's Total (EPA:TTEF) Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).

The assessment pointed out that the changes in the go-to-market (GTM) strategy, including a shift to a six-month sales compensation cycle, have positively impacted the seasonality of New ARR in the first half of the fiscal year. This change is expected to contribute to a more evenly distributed growth pattern rather than the historical 40/60 split. The firm's analysis suggests that the company's guidance may be conservative and that the GTM changes could lead to a larger overall growth opportunity.

Dynatrace's management has expressed confidence in the guidance provided, citing a stable demand environment and growth in the sales pipeline. The pipeline coverage ratios are consistent with the first half of the year, indicating potential for continued success. However, the firm acknowledged that the productivity of the sales team could be affected by the high proportion of sales representatives with less than a year at the company, which is factored into the guidance.

Guggenheim's stance is that if Dynatrace continues to perform as it did in the second quarter, there could be significant upside to the ARR guidance for the year. The firm anticipates sustainable mid to high teens growth as the GTM changes further mature and take effect.

In other recent news, DynaTrace reported a solid Fiscal Second Quarter of 2025, marked by a notable increase in key financial metrics. The company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) saw a 19% year-over-year growth to $1.62 billion, while subscription revenue also increased by 20%. These developments come amid a surge in customer expansions and the adoption of DynaTrace's innovative platform.

The company's go-to-market strategy now targets larger IT accounts and partnerships, contributing to a net retention rate of 112%. Despite a strong Q2 performance, DynaTrace maintains its full-year ARR guidance at $1.72 to $1.735 billion, reflecting 15% to 16% growth. However, the total revenue guidance for the full year was raised to $1.67 to $1.68 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin guidance increased to 28% to 28.25%.

While the new sales representatives and accounts introduce some uncertainty, the company has seen an increase in partner-sourced deals, now representing nearly 50% of the total. Furthermore, the company anticipates Q3 total revenue to be between $425 million and $428 million, with subscription revenue expected to be between $407 million and $410 million. These are the recent developments in the company's financial landscape.

InvestingPro Insights

Dynatrace's strong performance highlighted by Guggenheim is further supported by real-time data from InvestingPro. The company's impressive gross profit margin of 82.49% for the last twelve months as of Q1 2023 aligns with the InvestingPro Tip that Dynatrace "has impressive gross profit margins." This high margin reflects the company's ability to efficiently convert revenue into profit, which is crucial for sustaining the growth trajectory discussed in the article.

Additionally, Dynatrace's revenue growth of 22.28% over the same period underscores the company's expansion and strong market position mentioned in the Guggenheim report. This growth, coupled with the InvestingPro Tip that Dynatrace is "profitable over the last twelve months," reinforces the positive outlook on the company's financial health and potential for continued success.

It's worth noting that while Dynatrace shows strong growth and profitability, it is currently trading at a high P/E ratio of 103.7, which the InvestingPro Tip describes as "trading at a high earnings multiple." This valuation suggests that investors have high expectations for future growth, aligning with Guggenheim's optimistic stance on the company's potential upside.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 13 additional tips on Dynatrace, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial position and market performance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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