On Tuesday, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) issued a new rating for Eisai Co Ltd (OTC:ESAIY). (4523:JP) (OTC: ESALY), marking a shift from Overweight to Neutral. The firm also significantly reduced the price target for Eisai to JPY4,500 from the previous JPY11,000. This adjustment comes as JPMorgan revised its expectations for the U.S. sales of Eisai's Alzheimer's treatment, Leqembi.
The downgrade was prompted by a reassessment of the potential for Leqembi's sales in the U.S. market. Despite a certain level of demand for Leqembi, the availability of medical infusion chairs, necessary for administering the treatment, is seen as a bottleneck. Eisai has set a goal to secure 19,000 infusion chairs by the end of 2024 and aims to expand this number to 26,000 by 2025. However, JPMorgan analysts believe that at the current pace, their previous sales forecasts are unlikely to be met.
Furthermore, concerns were raised regarding the gross margin of Leqembi. Although Eisai had provided initial guidance indicating a low gross margin for the product, JPMorgan has adjusted its gross margin assumptions downward due to the uncertain rate of improvement in the future.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan anticipates that Eisai's financial results for the fiscal year 2025 will be flat year-over-year, which is expected to impact the company's share price negatively from the third quarter of the fiscal year 2024 onwards. The firm's forecast for Eisai's operating profit in fiscal year 2025 stands at JPY54.3 billion, in contrast to the Bloomberg consensus estimate of JPY71.2 billion, which JPMorgan considers to be somewhat optimistic.
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