On Wednesday, Citi analysts, led by Geoff Meacham, maintained a Buy rating on Eli Lilly shares (NYSE:LLY) with a steady price target of $1,250.00. The firm's stance comes after Eli Lilly's disclosure of a fourth-quarter miss, attributed to two main factors: an anticipated surge in December sales within the diabetes/GLP-1 market that did not occur, and an expected inventory build that failed to materialize.
Eli Lilly's forecast for 2025 was discussed at a meeting in San Francisco this week, with Citi analysts noting the company's expectations for 32% revenue growth at the midpoint. This projection is seen as a reflection of strong demand for tirzepatide, potential for further growth as access improves, opportunities outside the United States, and robust performance in Eli Lilly's portfolio beyond incretin therapies.
The attention was also drawn to Orforglipron, Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 treatment candidate. The first data for Orforglipron is anticipated in late Q2, with a possible launch in early 2026. Citi analysts underscore the drug's potential to revolutionize the GLP-1 space, should it achieve 10-15% weight loss and a discontinuation rate of less than 10%.
In summary, Citi analysts believe that 2025 is shaping up to be another blockbuster year for Eli Lilly, reiterating their Buy rating and $1,250 price target on the stock. The confidence is based on the expected strength of tirzepatide demand and the prospective impact of Orforglipron in the GLP-1 market.
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