On Friday, BMO Capital Markets reiterated its Outperform rating and $222.00 price target for Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL), expressing confidence in the insurance giant's growth prospects. According to InvestingPro data, Allstate currently trades below its Fair Value, with 12 analysts recently revising their earnings expectations upward. The company maintains a "GREAT" overall financial health score of 3.0 out of 5. BMO Capital's analysis suggests that Allstate's anticipated turnaround in organic growth from a negative approximately 1% to a positive near 3% is within reach, addressing a key concern among investors.
The firm's assessment includes a detailed walkthrough of the calculations that support their optimistic view. However, they have observed that the estimated app store download trend for Allstate has not been showing positive results. This raises questions about potential challenges to Allstate's direct-to-consumer strategy, which is crucial to the company's growth turnaround.
For BMO Capital's thesis on Allstate's "return-to-sustainable low-single digit organic growth" to materialize, the insurer's direct-to-consumer transformation strategy needs to keep up its momentum. This strategy is expected to contribute approximately 1.6 percentage points to organic growth compared to 2024 figures. Additionally, BMO Capital anticipates that Allstate's client retention rates will improve over the next year, which could further drive upside potential for the company. Notably, InvestingPro reveals that Allstate has maintained dividend payments for 32 consecutive years, demonstrating consistent shareholder returns despite market cycles. Get access to more exclusive insights and detailed analysis in InvestingPro's comprehensive research report.
Despite the potential for growth, BMO Capital acknowledges that there are uncertainties. Notably, the Direct channel, which is a significant growth area for Allstate, historically has a retention rate in the 70s, compared to Allstate's overall high-80s retention rate track record. The success of Allstate's growth strategy and the improvement in retention rates are not guaranteed but are considered likely by BMO Capital's analysis. With a market capitalization of $48.9 billion and a P/E ratio of 11.85, Allstate remains a prominent player in the insurance industry.
In other recent news, insurance companies including Allstate, Travelers (NYSE:TRV), and Chubb (NYSE:CB), are facing potential losses due to the recent wildfires in California. Analysts from J.P. Morgan have warned that the overall industry losses could surpass $20 billion if the fires continue, which is a significant increase from the previous estimate of around $10 billion. Allstate, in particular, has been identified as one of the most exposed to the California homeowners' market, which is expected to be heavily impacted by the claims resulting from the wildfire damage.
Meanwhile, Allstate's stock has been upgraded to Outperform from In-line by Evercore ISI analysts, who have also increased the price target to $226 from the previous $209. The upgrade is based on the belief that Allstate's current valuation does not reflect the potential for policy-in-force growth and an expected increase in earnings per share in the upcoming years.
In addition, Piper Sandler has increased the price target for Allstate's shares to $244, while maintaining an Overweight rating. The adjustment is based on a comprehensive review of Allstate's updated reporting structure, which now combines the financial results of Allstate and National General brand.
Jefferies has also adjusted its outlook on Allstate, increasing the insurer's price target from $231.00 to $267.00, while maintaining a Buy rating. The firm's analysis suggests a positive shift in Allstate's auto and home insurance business segments, projecting market share gains and stronger margins.
Lastly, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, a financial services firm, has raised the price target for Allstate from $222.00 to $225.00, maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm has revised its earnings per share estimates for Allstate for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, taking into account the recent quarter's outperformance.
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