On Wednesday, Bernstein analysts maintained their positive stance on Eli Lilly stock (NYSE:LLY), reiterating an Outperform rating and a price target of $1,100.00. The pharmaceutical giant announced its revenue expectations for 2024 and guidance for 2025, which indicated a shortfall in the fourth quarter GLP-1 revenue compared to consensus estimates.
Despite this, Bernstein remains confident in Eli Lilly's long-term market leadership and total addressable market (TAM). According to InvestingPro data, LLY maintains strong financial health with an overall score of "GOOD" and impressive revenue growth of 27.4% over the last twelve months.
Eli Lilly forecasted its 2024 revenue to be around $45 billion, which falls $400 million short of the previously projected range of $45.4 to $46.6 billion. The company's Q4 GLP-1 revenue is anticipated to be approximately $3.5 billion for Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound, marking a 19% and 13% decrease from consensus predictions, respectively.
On the other hand, non-incretin revenue surpassed expectations, showing a 20% growth from the previous year and an estimated 11% higher than consensus. With a robust gross profit margin of 80.9% and projected revenue growth of 34% for FY2024, the company maintains strong fundamentals despite near-term challenges.
For the year 2025, Eli Lilly has set its revenue guidance between $58.0 and $61.0 billion. Current market consensus for 2025 is just below the midpoint at $58.7 billion. Bernstein analysts were not surprised by the Q4 shortfall, as concerns about potential revenue misses had been previously voiced by investors due to less robust prescription trends. For deeper insights into LLY's growth trajectory and comprehensive financial analysis, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, which covers over 1,400 top US stocks.
The analysts expressed confidence in Eli Lilly's ability to stimulate further demand and effectively manage the ongoing effects of product shortages. They also highlighted Eli Lilly's superior GLP-1 growth rate exiting 2024 compared to that of Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), reinforcing their belief in the company's competitive edge.
Despite today's revenue miss, Bernstein stands firm on their long-term outlook for Eli Lilly. This optimism is reflected in the broader analyst consensus, with an average rating of 1.75 (Strong Buy) and price targets ranging from $580 to $1,250.
In other recent news, Eli Lilly reported a Q4 revenue of $13.5 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of around $14 billion. This shortfall was attributed to weaker-than-expected sales from its Mounjaro and Zepbound portfolio. Despite this, analysts from BMO Capital, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), BofA Securities, and Citi maintain positive ratings on Eli Lilly, with price targets ranging from $997 to $1,250.
Additionally, Eli Lilly recently acquired Scorpion Therapeutics' PI3Kα inhibitor program in a deal that could total $2.5 billion. The company provided guidance for 2025, projecting total revenues between $58 and $61 billion, reflecting a positive growth outlook.
BMO Capital sees potential for the company to outperform expectations through continued effective commercial strategies and several product launches. The firm is anticipating positive outcomes from the upcoming Phase 3 data for orforglipron, which is expected in the second quarter of 2025.
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