Quick Recap
Stocks continue to push higher in the US with another new weekly high close. But signs are there that a top is forming. Elsewhere the US dollar (AX:USD) remains strong with the Euro (AX:EEU) and Aussie under pressure. Likewise the crude complex remains heavy.
What You Need To Know
It’s a huge week ahead both here at home and across global markets. Wednesday is the big one with the release of Oz CPI, UK Q2 GDP, US Durable Goods and of course the FOMC announcement. No move expected but there is a really big chance that the Fed signals that the next meeting in September is live.
Thursday has Japanese CPI in the run up the BoJ Meeting on Friday – Helicopter Kuroda anyone? – and then of course because it’s Friday we get big data from the US to end the week in the form of US Q2 GDP. EU GDP is also out.
International
- It’s been a pretty good couple of week’s for the trends we talked about before I went away. Gold is down, Crude Oil is drifting, and stocks kept rallying (that said the Aussie is down however). But even though US stock markets kept rallying and finished the week at a new all time high (S&P +0.46% at 2175, and Dow +0.29% at 18750) there are signs we may be seeing a topping pattern in stocks.
I know I’ve been away but when I look at my charts, and add in the looming Olympics and August holidays, you get a topping pattern on the S&P 500 and the Dow. Not bearish per se but 2133 on the S&P 500 seems a reasonable target over the next couple of weeks.
Here’s the chart of the combo of futures and physical S&P 500 markets. 
- G20 was on again in China over the weekend and the talks seemed to be dominated by fears about Brexit, protectionist policies and non-inclusive growth. BUT in the G20 statements and communique I get a real sense that politicians are using Brexit as an excuse for potential economic woes it just hasn’t, and won’t, cause in order to push domestic political agenda’s.
- Take the one off post-Brexit UK PMI release we saw Friday. The data showed a big collapse in the Services (47.4) and manufacturing (49.1) purchasing managers indexes from where the printed on the last read. But what the heck do you expect purchasing managers to say when everyone is telling them things are going to be bad – this is a confidence read and I reckon you can dismiss it for now. That’s particularly the case given EU PMI’s (services 52.7 and Mfg 52.8) – also released Friday showed Europe is shrugging off Brexit.
- Which gets me back to the G20. Reuters reports “the world's biggest economies will work to support global growth and better share the benefits of trade, policymakers said on Sunday after a meeting dominated by the impact of Britain's exit from Europe and fears of rising protectionism”. The communique said global growth is “weaker than desirable” and the G20 said it will use all tools “monetary, fiscal and structural” to generate “strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth.” Inclusive – interesting.
- On inclusive Japan’s finance minister Taro Aso had a pop at China and the weakening Yuan rate. No doubt he’s jealous China is doing something he can’t but it, along with leaders saying Britain has to get on with it and blaming Brexit for uncertainty, is a sign that policy makers have no idea what to do next. Except blame the other guy – externalities, it’s not my fault.
Australia
- 5530 could be the high for this run on the S&P/ASX 200 if the Dow and S&P slow their ascent. The SPI 200 is giving no lead today with a gain of just 4 points on Friday night after the physical market closed at 5498 on Friday.
- Slides in oil, gold, and iron ore could weigh on stocks a little but US financials did okay Friday. The big question really is really the appetite for more gains after a 500 point rally in the past month.
- Nothing out datawise today of note so we’ll be watching what happens in Asia as a guide today.
Forex
- The release of the UK PMI’s knocked Sterling for 6 Friday. But it’s a relative 6 these days and it’s back at 1.3141 in early trade this morning. USDJPY is at 106.28 as Tara Aso looks wistfully at the crash of the Pound since Brexit and the Euro slide is continuing in slow motion at 1.0982. Here's the Euro chart - as discussed before my break it's trending lower and could go lower yet.
- The Aussie dollar broke out of the 2 month uptrend on Thursday night and is at 0.7458 this morning. No doubt the looming CPI Wednesday, which is expected to be a trigger for an RBA cut by most pundits, is weighing along with the general US dollar strength. But there are tentative signs of a turn for the Aussie. Here's the chart.
Commodities (short and sharp)
- Gold is back with stocks higher but at $1322 is $5 an ounce of last week’s lows. $1306 is important trendline support.
- Crude is down again as concerns continue about gasoline stocks and actual levels of demand. We are seeing a neat little mapping out of the bearish pattern we talked about before I went away. WTI is at $44.19 and Brent is at $45.69. Here's WTI.
- Copper continues to hang tough at $2.2360 a pound.
Today's key data and events (all times AEDT)
- Australia - Nil
- New Zealand - Nil
- China - Nil
- Japan - Corporate Service Price (YoY) (May) (9.50am)
- Germany - IFO - Current Assessment (Jul), IFO - Expectations (Jul), IFO - Business Climate (Jul) (6pm)
- EU - Nil
- UK - Gfk Consumer Confidence (Jul) (9.05am); Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) (Jul), Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) (Jul) (4pm); BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jun) (6.30pm)
- Canada - Nil
- US - 3-Month Bill Auction, 6-Month Bill Auction (1.30am); 2-Year Note Auction (3am)
Have a great day's trading
Greg McKenna
Chief Market Strategist AxiTrader