Originally published by AxiTrader
Another day, another surge in Chinese metals futures with iron ore and the base metal complex sharply higher in Asia trade yesterday. That then fed into positivity through European trade, on the LME, and into US futures markets.
And even though the US dollar is weaker and the Aussie dollar didn't gain overly much in the first 24 hours of trade this week what these moves did do was validate the Aussie above 79 cents.
Indeed given the yen, Swiss franc, and gold all caught a bid in this first part of the week it's fair to say the Australian dollar's performance has been solid - supported by this move in metals or else it might be back below 79 cents and under a little pressure.
Forex prices are the result of complex interactions between buyers and sellers that take many drivers across many time frames into account. It's one of the reasons currency markets are like little perpetual motion machines - always trading, always moving. Long-term buyers and sellers look at their metrics of value, short-term traders have a different set.
For the moment what is clear is that the combination of a weak dollar, a strong Australian economy, and this latest surge in metals prices have combined to lift the Australian dollar.
That makes the outlook still very fluid because the battle is raging over the value of the US dollar. Is this just a hiatus before more weakness in the US dollar or the start of a trend toward strength. Either is important for the Aussie up here near 80 cents.
Likewise, does this rally in Chinese futures - and the consequent lift in global prices - have stickability? Copper prices are at their highest since 2015, zinc is at decade highs, and iron ore is heading back toward the downtrend line from the record highs back in 2010/11.
Global growth is at its strongest in years. China remains committed to growing at 6.5% or better. So perhaps it is.
Time will tell. But it is worth noting that a number of forecasters of Aussie dollar value have been walking their levels up over recent months. the latest Reuters poll has AUD/USD forecasts of 78 cents in 1 month's time and only 76 cents in 12 month's time.
That tells us much, but not all, of the positives, have been assimilated by forecasters. They still hold residual doubt about the Aussie's ability to hold these levels.
In the end the discussion and the interaction between the bulls and the bears manifests itself in the price action. And on that front we know 78 cents has so far been good support while the mid 80 cent region has been resistance.
Either side needs to break to open up the next leg for the AUD/USD.
Shorter-term the 4-hour chart shows traders are respecting a little uptrend from the lows near 78 cents. The Levels to watch today are 0.7920 and 0.7960/65. A topside break would suggest 0.8020 while a break of the trend line suggests 0.7885.
Have a great