Originally published by AxiTrader
It has been a good night on global stock markets as first the ECB decision and announcement drove stocks across the continent higher and then the passage of the 2018 budget resolution by the US House of representatives together with solid earnings reports saw US stocks higher.
That combination sets up a good day for local bourses across Asia and renewed pressure on the regions currenices.
The breaks higher in USD/SGD and USD/PHP were confirmed overnight as the US dollar surged after Mario Draghi and his colleagues at the European Central Bank (ECB) made it clear that whatever the improvement in European growth they have no intention to follow the Federal Reserve into a tightening cycle anytime soon.
That's the fundamental takeaway got from what was a masterclass in managing market perceptions from ECB president Draghi.
Indeed Draghi focussed on policy divergence with the Fed pointedly saying “Net asset purchases, sizeable stock of acquired assets and reinvestments, and forward guidance on rates provide monetary support”.
In other words the ECB is still going in the opposite direction to the Fed and intends to stay that course. No wonder Euro got hammered, the US dollar surged and DollarAsia rose strongly.
That US dollar surge at a time of solid global growth expectations is going to be good for the region as the depreciation it speaks to for many Asian currencies will improve their competitiveness.
The move has seen USD/PHP surge to 52.20 with no signs these highest levels since 2006 are going to reverse anytime soon. 52.80 and the June 2006 high at 53.66 coming into the frame.
Yesterday's solid GDP report in South Korea saw the Won strengthen toward support at 1120 before the overnight lift in the US dollar.
Likewise, the rally in the US dollar also drove the Singapore dollar lower even though yesterday's manufacturing output data was better than expected printing a solid 14.5% year on year growth rate against expectations it would slip back to 10% with a big monthly fall. In the end, the monthly drop was only half a percent.
At 1.3680 this morning USD/SGD is at a significant level just below the recent high at 1.3690 which, if broken would suggest a run toward the 38.2% retracement level of this year's big sell-off in USD/SGD.
Any push above this level, or the 200-day moving average which currently sits at 1.3832, would suggest DollarAsia more broadly is coming under pressure.
The price action this week has taken the China50 index up and through the 61.8% retracement of the 2015 sell-off opening up the real prospect that Chinese stock prices can climb toward record highs in the months ahead.
As heady as that seems, a positive global growth backdrop and continued rally in developed markets lends support to such a moves potential.
Just quickly on the data front.
Today we get the release of Chinese industrial profit data and we've already seen South Korean consumer sentiment data and Japanese CPI inflation.
Korean sentiment was positive with a lift to 109 in October from last month's 108. While Japanese consumer prices rose just 0.7% year on year during the month of September. This data again reinforces why the BoJ will stay accommodative when it comes to monetary policy.
Have a great day's trading.