Get 40% Off
🤯 This Tech Portfolio is up 29% YTD! Join Now to Get April’s Top PicksGet The Picks – Just 99 USD

NFP Does Enough...Just

Published 10/08/2015, 04:52 pm
Updated 13/01/2022, 09:55 pm

Although Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls number missed expectations, it wasn’t enough to put a dampener on expectations of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve as early as September.

“USD Non-Farm Employment Change (215K v 222K expected)”

With the Unemployment Rate also holding at the lowest level in 7 years, optimism was quickly restored after the initial negative reaction caused by traders and algos reacting to the headline number.

“USD Unemployment Rate 5.3% v 5.3% expected)”

With the costs of borrowing money to potentially invest in stocks looking like going up, Wall Street initially sold off the S&P 500, causing it to close at its lowest level in a month.

S&P 500 Daily:
S&P 500 daily
I wouldn’t get too carried away with this move just yet because as you can see from the chart above, price is still heavily range bound, trapped by a flag pattern inside a longer term bullish channel.

Stock market bulls aren’t finished with just yet!

Chinese Woes:

CNY Trade Balance (43.0B v 53.4B expected)”

CNY CPI y/y (1.6% v 1.5% expected)”

The weekend saw Chinese Trade data suffer on the back of a fall in exports. With Chinese economic growth still a major sticking point in terms of confidence in commodity currencies such as the Aussie dollar, this number will do nothing to change that perception as we head into a new week.

SPI200 Daily:
SPI 200 Daily

Sticking with the Stock Market theme to begin the week, the Australian SPI 200 has fallen a lot sharper than its Wall Street counterpart and with both the US and China coming off, not much is expected for the local market today.

As you can see from the above chart, price has also been kind to traders who fade major levels, with the SPI tightly range bound and respecting levels to the pip.

———-

On the Calendar Monday:
A quiet Asian session to begin a fresh week with the tier 1 Chinese Trade Balance and Inflation data we spoke about above both having been released over the weekend.

Later in the evening we see a couple of FOMC members speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s conference. Lockhart is due to deliver opening remarks alongside Fischer before the former speaks again with an added Q&A session that has the potential to move markets.

USD FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks Again

———-

Chart of the Day:
We take a look at Oil as price enters an important tradable zone:

OIL Daily:
Oil Daily

After a short lived relief rally, Oil resumed its bearish trend, just as quickly falling back to its lows where price currently sits.

An argument could easily be made that this current zone is a buy until it actually breaks but for the more conservative traders that prefer to go with the trend, selling any sort of momentum or a re-test of broken support could well be the smarter play.

Risk Disclosure: In addition to the website disclaimer below, the material on this page prepared by Vantage FX Pty Ltd, does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to trade. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and marketing communication – not as investment advice. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The experts writers express their personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. We always aim for maximum accuracy and timeliness and Vantage FX shall not be liable for any loss or damage, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the service and its content, inaccurate information or typos. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the report will be achieved, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.