Natural Gas: Delayed Winter Likely to Extend Bullish Sentiments

Natural gas futures are on the way to hitting fresh highs since I pointed out the formation of a bullish hammer in February with a confirmation candle this month after I wrote my February 28th piece. The majority of traders were full of skepticism about the strength of the bulls after experiencing a 2-½-month-long selloff that pushed natural gas prices into extremely bearish territory.

Improving hopes for the resumption of the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas were fresh fodder for the bulls over the last month, resulting in a monthly bullish hammer.

Last Friday, the weather took a U-turn as nearly twice as much snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains pushed natural gas futures above $3.

The first three trading sessions of March provided good feed to the bulls to keep the trend upward despite the bearish inventory announcement last Thursday, announcing a mere withdrawal of 81 Bcf, which is still below the 5-year average of -134 Bcf.

According to the natgasweather.com outlook for March 3-9, the weather could remain colder as a strong storm will track across the Great Lakes and East the next few days with rain, snow, and colder temperatures, with lows of 0s to 30s for slightly stronger national demand.

However, the southern and eastern US will warm back above normal on Sun-Tues with a high of 50s to 80s for a return to lighter demand. A colder pattern will arrive late next week as frosty lows of -0s to 20s cover the northern US, with 20s to 40s over the southern US.

Technically speaking, in a monthly chart, the bullish hammer formed in Feb. 2023 got the next confirmation candle during the first three trading sessions of March. The length of this confirmation will provide some clues about the peak levels for this year. 


In a weekly chart, the last weekly candle maintained a gap after the formation of a bullish weekly candle, formed during the week before last from the lows at $2.112, indicating that the next weekly candle could continue this sequential trend if natural gas creates an opening gap on the first trading session of the upcoming week as last week’s candle closed well above the 9 DMA which is at $2.986.

If natural gas starts the upcoming week with a gap-up and sustains above the immediate weekly resistance at $3.213, bulls could try to hit the 200 DMA resistance, which is at $3.755, before the advent of fresh selling.

In a daily chart, natural gas futures are showing strong momentum is still intact as the 9 DMA had crossed 18 DMA last Friday, indicating a breakout move above the significant resistance 3.213 as the put/call open interest ratio for Apr. 2023 contract seems to be in favor of the bulls.

On the flip side, if the futures start the upcoming week with a gap-down opening, fresh buying could follow any downward move up to $2.448 and could result in a sharp reversal on the first trading session.

Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities in the world.