Originally published by AxiTrader
COCOA prices have rallied since the double bottom at $1754. Today, it has been able to break above the 100 DMA resistance and extend gains slightly beyond it. However, the downtrend remains intact and strong. Cocoa would have clear resistance at $2185 before short-term techs would switch to bullish, and that level has proven to be tough. Therefore, selling rallies is still the preferred strategy, and it Cocoa is likely to lose some of its momentum as it approaches that level, if not earlier.
COFFEE continues to consolidate in a rather tight range. The trendline and resistance in form of the 55 DMA have capped the topside, and with a clear downtrend, further losses seem likely. The commodity should test the recent low at $125 fairly soon.
COPPER bounced ahead of the 200 DMA and has recovered slightly in the past few trading days. Overall, the short-term and medium-term technical outlook remains mixed. It would take a clear break above $2.80 resistance or below $2.30 support for momentum to accelerate, but that seems unlikely in the near-term. Playing the range is the appropriate strategy until then, and if Copper takes out resistance at $2.60/61, the rally could extend to at least $2.70.
GOLD has been recovering slightly since the bounce off $1212 support last week. However, resistance at $1235 proved to be tough, and Gold failed to breach it. Should it manage to clear that obstacle, an extension of the rally towards $1250 seems likely. However, resistance there is strong, and Gold is likely to struggle there. To the downside, immediate support is seen at $1220, followed by $1212.
NATURAL GAS broke above resistance and $3.35, which suggests we are likely to retest $3.50 soon. Look for decent support ahead of $3.20. Should NAT GAS clear resistance at $3.50 as well, the rally is likely to extend towards $4.00.
SOYBEAN still looks weak. It failed at the resistance area between $986 and $991 last week, and is now under renewed pressure. A retest of the recent low at $926 seems likely. To the topside, expect decent resistance at the 55 DMA at $977, followed by the aforementioned key resistance area between $986 and $991.
WTI had a strong rally today, following news that Saudi Arabia and Russia want to extend the output cut. It briefly broke above the 200 DMA, but eventually ran out of momentum. Decent support is now seen at $48.20 (former resistance level). A clear bounce off that level would confirm that WTI short-term techs are bullish. Should WTI break back below $48 though, it could be a sign of a false breakout.
