Originally published by Chamber of Merchants
By The Speculator
What a roller coaster of a month. It started out good and up until the 25th, the USD gold price and the miners we up 6% and 15% respectively. In the last week we had a pullback that brought gold to the 38% retracement level of $1183, closing at $1190.
At the end of every month I’ll provide a summary of the position changes. Depending on the week end dates it may be 1-2 days earlier. Lets take a look at how we went – and please post your results if you don’t mind. We are all on this ride together after all.
Lets take a look at the charts:
USD Gold 4HR – Looking good so far
USD Gold with AUD Overlay – What a run on the Aussie Dollar – expecting it to pull back next month
AUD Gold – Pretty much did nothing all month with an $11 loss
While the iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold (TO:XGD) was up 9%, how did the individual stocks fare. Here is a list of the companies I am following. Note I do not own all of them.
Blackham Resources Ltd (AX:BLK) +47%
Dacian Gold Ltd (AX:DCN) +16%
Doray Minerals Ltd (AX:DRM) +6%
Emmerson Resources Ltd (AX:ERM) -12%
Evolution Mining Ltd (AX:EVN) +2%
Gold Road Resources Ltd (AX:GOR) -2%
Millennium (AX:MOY) +22%
Northern Star Resources Ltd (AX:NST) +4%
Primary Gold Ltd (AX:PGO) +10%
Ramelius Resources Ltd (AX:RMS) +16%
Resolute Mining Ltd (AX:RSG) +10%
Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd (AX:SAR) +8%
Silver Lake Resources Ltd (AX:SLR) +2%
St Barbara Ltd (AX:SBM) +14%
Troy Resources Ltd (AX:TRY) -7%
Westgold Resources Ltd (AX:WGX) +18%
After reading the latest post from the Merchant it seems some people are losing money trading these stocks. My strategy is different to the Merchant. I am buying and holding for the eventual spike in gold (1-3 years). I suck at trading so I stay away from it. Perhaps that is something you should think about if you are constantly losing money, and if your trading through an Australian broker those commissions add up! One thing I do agree with is to not listen to the forum posters, do your own research.
So what happened this month, if you ignore all the noise – nothing much. It was mostly dominated by the new US President Donald Trump and his new policies. Here is a break down of events that I think are worth mentioning:
- Bitcoin started the year on a high as the best performing currency 2 years in a row. Peaking at $1157 on Jan 5th it soon came crashing down falling to $765 just 1 week later – down 34% in a week. For the last few weeks it has slowly been trending higher. Expect more volatility as China implements capital controls.
- The latest report from the Institute for International Finance released shows that as of Q3 2016 world debt had increased to 217 Trillion. Global debt levels sit roughly 325% of the world’s gross domestic product and growing exponentially.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 20,000 on Jan 25th with the S&P 500 crossing 2300 one day later. Both closed the month at record highs. These parabolic moves are well into the blow off stage.
- World market index closed in on record highs boosted by the US stock markets.
- Trump sworn in as president of the USA on Jan 20th. Gave a good speech but nothing to really move any of the markets.
- Trumps immigration policy has been enforced banning anyone from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Libya, Somalia and Yemen to enter the country. Protests are going on and just reported was a partial block of Trump immigration order by a federal judge. This one should be interesting.
- No major terror attacks, ISIS seems to be in hibernation mode.
The stage is being set for a wild 2017 in my opinion. While nothing earth shattering happened this month. Stay tuned for an exciting time ahead.
On a final note the US debt us currently at $19,967,500,000,000+