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Historic Data Points To Strong Equities During 3rd Year Of Presidency

Published 12/11/2018, 10:41 am
Updated 09/07/2023, 08:32 pm

Originally published by Rivkin Securities

Wall street ended the trading week below the 2900 point level with the S&P 500 sliding 0.9 per cent lower during last Friday's trading session. Australian shares are expected to start the week lower with ASX futures 37 points down before the open. Market sentiment seems to be some-what undecided as investors hope for an equities Santa Claus rally closer to the end of the year but focus their attention on the motives of the Fed.

However, the third year of a presidency is typically the strongest when It comes to US equities. Data from the last 25 cycles (100 years for the Dow Jones 1917 to 2017) shows an average return for year 3 is 12.9% - it is often higher with a Democrat president compared to Republican.

Oil slid another 1pc which marks the 10th straight day it fell on Friday – this marks the longest streak since July 1984.

Nickel also slumped to its lowest price in almost 11 months on Friday – as speculators concentrated selling positions due to worries about higher US interest rates and slowing Chinese economic growth.

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