Originally published by Chamber of Merchants
There is something intensely sad about the happiness portrayed in that photo between those four persons. To me it is a rare insight into yesterday where it was not yet known that some day soon their paths would be set for a collision that would either divide or unite a nation in distress.
There is something deeply ingrained in the human condition that leaves us nostalgic and wanting for a sense of goodness that once was, but no longer is.
Julian Assange’s description of Hillary Clinton moved me,
“I actually feel quite sorry for Hillary Clinton as a person, because I see someone who is eaten alive by their ambitions, tormented literally to the point where they become sick [..] as a result of going on, and going with their ambitions”.
In this one life that we have, we have choices of what we pursue, what we consume and what we are consumed by. In that photo of Bill, Hillary, Donald and Melania, there is a glimpse of something that once was, but that has since been rubbed out by the trajectory of their ambitions and perhaps sense of duty towards themselves, their families and/or their nation.
Like innocence lost or goodness gone, they each chose a path which led them down the rabbit hole to depths they likely never intended on reaching, yet continued down further to see where it would take them.
I reflect on this quite deeply as I stare at that photo:
We will each reap what we sow. We will all make choices that lead us on paths, but we have a choice whether we become consumed and lose ourselves or whether we focus on the fact that regardless of power, status, connections, praise or pride, we each will awake in the bed we made for ourselves at one point or another.
We all will face the mirror of time and in it we will see the footsteps we left in the lives of others. I’ve been awakened to the prospect that life can very easily take a direction of its own if we don’t make clear and defined choices regarding our ambitions. In pursuing those ambitions we also forego another path that we may have walked, had our ambitions been, perhaps, less enslaving.
For myself, I intend on having a life of as few regrets as possible. Challenges, for certain, will arise every so often, but I will bend my mind towards ensuring that I never stand in front of that mirror in distaste of what I see.
I hope Hillary, Donald and their families find peace in their purpose on this brand new day and that they can say goodbye to yesterday knowing that today brings them new opportunities to define themselves anew.
Business Time
Gold, Silver, stocks, the US Dollar Index are all whipsawing like crazy:
[This is a brief summary before the US market opens. I’ll publish a new post once the US market processes the shock and adjustment.]
The market needs to find a new equilibrium. In my previous post I mentioned that I don’t believe that the market will crash. I spoke in length about sector rotation and how funds would move out of some areas and into others.
[By the way, I’m satisfied with the decision of weighing the upside/downside risks of a Trump/ Hillary win. We currently sit at $1305 prior to U.S market open. Whether the gold price retreats or strengthens, I am pleased with my positioning in Junior Gold and Silver Miners).
Short term we will have uncertainty and speculation which will cause corrections, but once the market is confident in the direction that the new Commander in Chief will engage with budgetary issues, monetary policy, foreign trade and foreign policy then I believe that the markets will quickly gain momentum in particular directions.
A welcome development, which some of you may recall I predicted, was the lower probability of a rate hike in December.
The probability of a Fed rate hike was at 80%. Since the Trump victory it has been adjusted to 51%. This is very bullish for gold over the next few months.
I’ll be frank: I could share some impressive charts with you, but the truth is that charts at this stage would only act as a false sense of comfort.
Big picture focus is vital here.
Short term movement are close to impossible to predict. Therefore, as a Merchant, I reaffirm that the commodity producers I have acquired will continue to appreciate, especially if gold remains around $1280-$1320 and above.
The Dollar is trying to sort itself out, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are trying to find direction as Gold remains a hedge against the unknown.
Is this Brexit plus plus in financial terms? In theory it should be. But banks and big money may have had contingency plans in place that will be immediately followed on market open. In other words, while Brexit caught everyone off guard, Trexit may already be in their playbooks.
So my approach is not based on stocks crashing simply so that my portfolio will appreciate.
No.
You’ll already know that the reason gold retraced from it’s highs of $1900 is due to a tightening monetary policy stance. Given the current state of the economy, tightening now looks even further away. Hence, for me, Gold is still a solid transaction.
Remember, it all depends on US Dollar strength. On the one hand, in the short run, we could see a movement in the same direction as we did before.
On the other hand, if the dollar appreciates further and further, we will see a steady depreciation in Gold. However, I see the boost arriving as we near December when the rate hike situation will play out in one of two ways:
- The Fed raises rates… The market disapproves again and Gold appreciates.
- The Fed does not raise rates (conveniently citing a Trump upset to the economic outlook) and Gold appreciates, especially when the Dollar / Bond promise of higher interest rates starts to dissolve for investors.
Conclusion
I’m not selling. This morning Gold was around $1267. I tweeted that one should ignore the noise. We then steadily built up to $1338 in one day. We have declined since then, but the trend and direction are a positive development to consider.
The transaction for which I have prepared is getting closer, but I am not yet there. I intend on closing my transactions as Gold reaches overbought positions on the weekly chart.
The next few days will be a game of chance and stress if I try to exit, then enter and exit etc.
That’s not the Merchant way.
If I had not been in yesterday, I would clearly not have gained back $31k in one single day of market movement.
Focus. Big Picture.