Good news, bad news for Australian dollar

au.investing.com/analysis/good-news-bad-news-for-australian-dollar-200513474

By David Llewellyn-Smith | Jun 28, 2022 09:17

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DXY eased last night:

AUD fell across the board:

Oil lifted:

Even some metals too:

And miners (LON:GLEN):

EM stocks (NYSE:EEM) didn’t break new lows in the last leg lower but they’re not exactly tearing higher either:

EM junk (NYSE:HYG) is a fiery comet still screaming sell everything!

As yields lifted with oil:

And stocks fell:

The problem? Westpac:

Event Wrap

US durable goods orders in May were firmer than expected, rising 0.7%m/m (est. +0.2%m/m), with ex-transport up 0.7%m/m (est. +0.3%m/m), signalling stronger than expected business investment in Q2. Pending home sales in May also surprised to the upside, rising 0.7%m/m (est. -3.9%m/m). The Dallas Fed manufacturing activity survey fell sharply to -17.7 (est. -6.7, prior -7.4) – the lowest level since May 2020, with weakness broad based.

Event Outlook

NZ: Westpac anticipates a modest rise in filled jobs in the May employment indicator – a data series of renewed interest given the RBNZ’s focus on the labour market (Westpac f/c: 0.2%).

US: FHFA’s house prices and the S&P/CS home price index should reflect a slowing in price momentum as rate hikes begin to take effect (market f/c: 1.6% and 1.85% respectively). Inflation worries will continue to weigh on consumer confidence in June (market f/c: 100). Although robust growth in wholesale inventories is anticipated in May (market f/c: 2.2%), supply-side constraints are an ongoing concern in the Richmond Fed index (market f/c: -5). The FOMC’s Daly is also due to speak.

Too much good news to sustain the bear market rally. Monetary policy takes time to impact an economy. So don’t worry, more downside economic data is coming.

The question is, will it support a bid into risk? When the market realises it’s bad enough to be recessionary then no it won’t.

AUD included.

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

RBA

1.85%

Sep 06, 2022

BOE

1.75%

Sep 15, 2022

ECB

0.50%

Sep 08, 2022

FED

2.50%

Sep 21, 2022

SNB

-0.25%

Sep 22, 2022

BOC

2.50%

Sep 07, 2022

RBNZ

2.50%

Aug 17, 2022

BOJ

-0.10%

Sep 22, 2022

CBR

8.00%

Sep 16, 2022

RBI

5.40%

Sep 30, 2022

PBOC

3.70%

BCB

13.75%

Sep 21, 2022

S&P/ASX 200	7,001.60	-14.00	-0.20%
ASX 200 Futures	6,904.5	+1.0	+0.01%
ASX All Ordinaries	7,237.60	-12.70	-0.18%
US 500	4,135.6	-9.6	-0.23%
Dow Jones	32,803.47	+76.65	+0.23%
China A50 Futures	13,555.0	-28.0	-0.21%
Dollar Index	106.600	+0.170	+0.16%

Crude Oil WTI	88.36	-0.65	-0.73%
Natural Gas	7.851	-0.154	-1.92%
Gold	1,790.10	-1.10	-0.06%
Silver	19.773	-0.069	-0.35%
Copper	3.5505	-0.0013	-0.04%
US Sugar #11	17.96	+0.41	+2.34%
US Coffee C	209.13	-10.17	-4.64%

AUD/USD	0.6908	-0.0001	-0.01%
EUR/USD	1.0166	-0.0015	-0.15%
USD/JPY	135.37	+0.40	+0.29%
GBP/USD	1.2058	-0.0013	-0.11%
GBP/JPY	163.24	+0.32	+0.19%
AUD/JPY	93.51	+0.26	+0.28%
USD/CAD	1.2945	+0.0015	+0.12%

CSL	295.13	-1.62	-0.55%
Woolworths	38.120	-0.290	-0.76%
ANZ Banking Group	22.830	-0.120	-0.52%
Commonwealth Bank Australia	101.850	+0.440	+0.43%
Telstra Corporation.	4.015	-0.025	-0.62%
National Australia Bank	30.690	-0.220	-0.71%
BHP Group Ltd	38.800	-0.010	-0.03%

Good news, bad news for Australian dollar

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