Originally published by UBS Asset Management
Veritas Securities analyst Andrew McCauley published some interesting data this week showing that since 1985, the S&P/ASX 200 (ex REITs)* has delivered consistently strong returns during the month of April. This has occurred 87% of the time or 28 years out of 32, with the average return just shy of 3%. Outside of April, the other months delivered positive returns ~57% of the time. Anecdotally it's thought that investors acquire bank shares one to two months earlier than the earnings release and prior to them (ANZ, NAB & WBC) paying their dividends in May. When I ran the numbers for REITs** the returns were positive 81% of the time or 26 years out of 32 with an average ~2.2%. The upshot is don’t sell in April!
London House Prices
If you're sick of talking about Australian house prices, why not talk about UK house prices! The UK Land Registry recently updated their housing data with the UK showing annual price growth of +7.5% for the year to Jan 2017 (detached housing). England was the strongest, followed by Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. The London area saw detached house prices rise +7% despite the uncertainty caused by Brexit and the UK pound falling ~14% against the US dollar. The average price in inner London for a detached dwelling is £1.4m (~AUD2.25m or double Sydney's estimated median house price of ~AUD1.1m).
