Disney Earnings Preview: Spending Surge Steals The Show, But There's Growth Ahead

* Reports Q4 2019 results on Thursday, Nov. 7, after the close

* Revenue expectation: $19.29 billion

* EPS expectation: $0.95

For Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) shareholders, the fun ride is probably over. The company has entered a phase where spending will increase and profit will get hit. That's what the House of Mouse could show when it releases its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings this evening.

Analysts, on average, are forecasting a 36% decline in profit per share when compared with the same period a year ago. While growth in revenue continues to be strong, about 35% year-over-year, the major challenge for Disney is to quickly demonstrate that its streaming-video product is a major success which will rapidly generate more cash flow for the company.

Disney Weekly Price Chart

Disney is investing heavily to win back subscribers who decamped to streaming providers such as Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX). The entertainment giant had earlier warned that 2019 would mark a tough fiscal year as it goes through an internal transition after acquiring most of 21st Century Fox, and as it develops programs for its flagship Disney+ service, scheduled to be launched on Nov. 12.

The company has priced a new bundle of streaming services at a surprisingly low rate of $12.99 a month, for a package that includes family programming, live sports and a vast library of television shows. It said the combined pricing for Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu will represent a discount of nearly 30% vs their individual prices.

But all this means higher costs and lower profitability in the quarters to come if Disney’s traditional businesses aren’t there to quickly fill that gap. In Q3, spending on movies and TV shows for new online services resulted in a $553 million loss in Disney’s direct-to-consumer division. That figure may balloon to $900 million in the fourth quarter, Christine McCarthy, Disney’s chief financial officer, told analysts in the last earnings call.

The service is likely to have between 60 million and 90 million subscribers by the end of fiscal 2024, the year in which the company expects to achieve profitability on this segment.

Disney Shares Come Under Pressure

The chances of success are good for Disney's streaming service. Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ), the second-largest telecom operator in the U.S., last month gave the Disney+ service a big boost by offering free access for a year to its customers.

The company’s basic package, at $6.99 a month, costs about half as much as Netflix and offers a library of movies and TV shows that appeals to every kid — everything from "The Avengers" and "Star Wars" to "The Simpsons" and "Toy Story."

At this crucial juncture in his growth plan for Disney, CEO Bob Iger has to make sure that the company’s other growth engines — its vastly popular theme parks and its massive movie empire — are there to pick up the slack.

That didn’t happen in the past quarter though, when profit at the company’s domestic resorts fell even after the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge in the Disneyland resort in Anaheim, California, and the releases of “Avengers: Endgame,” the highest-grossing movie of all time, as well as “Aladdin” and “Toy Story 4.”

That’s the reason Disney shares have failed to impress investors in the past quarter. Since hitting a record high of $147.15 in late July, they are down almost 11% to close yesterday at $131.27.

Bottom Line

We're unlikely to see any positive surprises from Disney in a year that's going to push spending higher as the company takes Fox assets on board and spends on investing in the three direct-to-consumer products.

However, Disney is a powerful brand with a lot of growth momentum. It priced its streaming product competitively, which will make it hard for consumers to ignore its Disney+ services, offering rich content and a lot of variety. For these reasons, any pullback in Disney’s stock after the Q4 report should be taken as a buying opportunity.