Originally published by AxiTrader
Like "Dow 20,000" it's probably more interesting than important, but China's massive foreign exchange reserves fell more than expected in January to $2.998 trillion.
That came after reserves fell $12.3 billion which was more than the market was forecasting with an expectation of a fall of $10.5 billion.
In the grand scheme of things whether the market was right with its expectation of a $10.5 billion fall or whether we got the actual number of a fall of $12.3 billion doesn't matter.
It's a rounding error.
But the fact that the extra couple of billion fall knocked China's reserves below $3 trillion for the first time in 6 years has traders wondering how long China will have the ability, or the will, to defend the yuan rate and in doing so deplete China's overall reserve position.
In the current context of president Trump threatening to declare China a currency manipulator, and his clear desire for a weaker US dollar China's reserves management and how that interplays with the USDCNY rate could be another flash point between the world's two biggest economies.
Naturally the tightening of capital controls are an important part of Beijing's arsenal to defend the yuan. But the flip side is that preside Xi and premier Li's clear desire to have China included in global benchmarks such as the IMF's SDR basket may be a problem for this approach.
I say that in the wake of the head of global equity benchmark designer MSCI saying last month that it will be difficult for Chinese stocks to be included in its global benchmarks - under which trillions of dollars of funds are managed - while China still maintains these capital controls.
Yet without these controls there is a real and material risk of capital flight.
That will naturally raise fears that Beijing may opt for a one-off devaluation along the lines of the move in the USD/CNY in August 2015. Already, in the few short days since the return from Lunar New Year holidays, it looks like the PBOC is tightening liquidity in order to keep the Yuan bid.
But the risk remains for further yuan weakness.
That's particularly the case when you look at a chart of the USD/CNY.
USD/CNY is currently resting on a 10-month downtrend. If the 6.83 level breaks it would change the outlook on the charts - if not necessarily in the minds of Chinese citizens and companies trying to get their Yuan into dollars or other currencies.
On the topside a break of 6.8950 would signal that the downtrend USD/CNY has been in since January has ended.
The battle in the Yuan, and for China in managing its reserves is possibly the pre-emininet battle in markets to watch in the weeks and months ahead because it could take on important geopolitical significance under the new US administration.
And that means all traders need to aware of what's going on in China forex and money markets.
Have a great day's trading.