- Currently, $18,600 is the primary support holding BTC above its yearly low
- On the other hand, a breakout above the $19,500 resistance could push BTC toward $21,000
- Ethereum is testing the lower end of its Sep.-Oct. trading range, in a move that could push the cryptocurrency towards its yearly low of $1,000
Similarly to last month's action, Bitcoin hovered around the yearly lows this week. Ethereum, for its part, continued to move sideways in the $1,275 - $1,350 range.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving at unusually low volatility since the second half of September. The most notable move in this process came between October 4 and 5, when BTC returned to the channel movement after testing $20,000. Throughout October, the weak bullish reactions were mostly limited to the $19,500 level.
On the other hand, in the lower region, $19,000 became BTC/USD's weekly support.
At the beginning of this week, there was a move to break the falling trend line that we have followed since March. Still, the lack of buyers in the market prevented the completion of this move, and the cryptocurrency continued its downward trend along this trend line throughout the week.
In May, we experienced a similar outlook. While that period lasted for the first days of June, the price squeeze resulted in a depreciation of nearly 40% of BTC's value when the cryptocurrency fell from its $28,500 support to $ 17,635, setting the bottom of the year.
Currently, the $18,600 price is the primary support for BTC. While this level has held for five weeks, a weekly close below it would increase the chances of a downward slide in the squeezed price.
In the upper region, it became important for BTC/USD to hold the $19,000 price in weekend trading. After a weekly close above $19,000, investors will keep an eye on the $19,500 resistance. If this price level breaks upwards, we can see BTC moving toward $21,000, as the horizontal movement would likely be interpreted as a bullish breakout.
Ethereum
Ethereum continued to move within its latest trading range this week. The largest altcoin has been moving between $1,275 and $1,350 since September 23, with $1,300 being the pivotal level.
ETH, which fell to the $ 1,270 band on the last working day of the week, is currently testing the lower band of the range. If it sees a daily close below $1,275 today, we should see a decline toward the $1,200 - $1,220 area.
Even worse, if this movement is interpreted as a downside break of the trading range, Ethereum could enter a bearish trend toward below $1,000-- which is the bottom of 2022.
In addition, if Ethereum once again encounters an increase in demand at the $1,275 level, where it has seen support four times in the last 1-month period, eyes will be on the $ 1,350 resistance again. In a possible breakout, ETH may move towards the $1,415 - $1,500 range.
On the daily chart, key technical indicators continue to generate bearish signals. The Stochastic RSI continues to move toward the oversold territory, indicating more room for a decline. Short- and medium-term EMAs are also in their current positions, supporting seller-weighted trading.
As a result, it is critical that the ETH price, which continues under pressure, is maintained at around $1,275 in the next 48 hours to prevent further losses.
Recent positive developments in the cryptocurrency industry have not resulted in price gains. Price action continues in high correlation with stock markets and money supplies.
If cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, fail to establish a floor above short-term resistance zones by November, they may face the risk of a new trend below major support. However, that will depend on the global and macroeconomic developments of the upcoming month.
Disclosure: The author does not own any of the securities mentioned in this article.