- Bitcoin has traded in a range for a month, testing the lower band
- Meanwhile, Ethereum recently bounced off critical support
- Fed's press conference is key for both cryptos
Bitcoin has been in a month-long consolidation phase, characterized by low-volume transactions within the lower band over the past week.
Recent price action shows BTC finding consistent support around the $29,700 level while encountering selling pressure around the $30,100 region, leading to a narrowing price range.
With macroeconomic data in focus this week, market participants are closely watching the upcoming Fed interest rate decision, which could act as a catalyst for a breakout or a breakdown for the crypto.
Instead of the Fed's interest decision scheduled for the middle of the week, the real game-changer might be the statements made during the subsequent press conference.
Market expectations lean towards a 25-basis-point hike, and this is already being factored in until midweek. However, it's the wording used in the post-rate decision statement that will hold the key, especially for institutional investors in the crypto sector. Should hawkish sentiments persist, the horizontal movement in Bitcoin might face downward pressure.
If things play out that way, the next support line in the lower region could take shape in the $28,500 - $29,000 range. This area finds support from the 2023 rising trend line and the 3-month EMA. Additionally, the Stochastic RSI on the daily chart shows oversold conditions in July, which could help limit any potential pullback.
In this scenario, Bitcoin testing $28,500 in the lower zone could lead to a move toward the $30,500 - $31,500 range if buyers step up their volumes. A quick reach to this region might even trigger a trend towards $34,000, given the possibility of additional purchases.
However, if price action breaks below the uptrend, Bitcoin might experience a downward momentum and retreat to the May support zone of $26,300. To sum it up, keep a close eye on Bitcoin's movement in the range of $28,500 - $29,000 in case of a channel breakout, as it will provide crucial insights into the direction of the trend.
Ethereum: Technical View
While Ethereum has shown a high correlation with Bitcoin, it experienced a setback in June, losing its 2023 uptrend. Despite the loss of momentum during the uptrend, the cryptocurrency managed to stage a gradual recovery until the first half of July.
However, things took a downward turn again in the second half of July, as selling pressure emerged around the $2,000 mark. 
As the week kicked off, cryptocurrency markets witnessed selling pressure, causing Ethereum to slip below the critical $1,850 support level. Presently, it is of utmost importance for ETH to hold firm between the $1,825 to $1,850 range.
Any dip below this range could potentially extend the bearish momentum, with a possible decline to $1,750 by the end of the day and, subsequently, a retest of the downtrend line that originated in April. In such a scenario, there's a chance Ethereum could experience an average drop to around $1,660, triggered by a general selling wave.
On the other hand, maintaining the support line could boost buyer confidence, leading to a potential rebound. In this case, Ethereum might surge upwards to the $2,000 to $2,100 range, especially after the Fed's decision in the middle of the week.
In summary, the current week started with cryptocurrencies testing crucial support levels, and the next market move will likely depend on how buyers defend these critical zones.
Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, counsel, or recommendation to invest as such it is not intended to incentivize the purchase of assets in any way. I would like to remind you that any type of asset, is evaluated from multiple perspectives and is highly risky and, therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk remains with the investor.