Australian dollar massively oversold

au.investing.com/analysis/australian-dollar-massively-oversold-200578786

By David Llewellyn-Smith | Sep 20, 2023 08:58

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EUR/USD

-0.26%

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AUD/USD

-0.36%

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CAGR

+1.27%

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+0.45%

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TIOc1

+0.78%

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DXY is still powering:

AUD is firming anyway:

CNY only goes down:

Oil only goes up:

Dirt yawn:

EM yawn:

Junk yawn:

Yields know oil:

Stocks can’t hold if oil runs on:

AUD is massively oversold on CFTC:

AUD CFTC

CTAs likewise:

AUD Z-SCORE

Credit Agricole (EPA:CAGR) has triggered a positional long, though it does not have a great recent record:

Our positioning model G10 FX PIX 2.0 signals that the EUR and AUD are oversold. Subsequently, we have entered long positions in EUR/USD and AUD/USD with a target of +3% and a stop-loss of -1.5%.

The model is down-4.3% with a hit ratio of 42% over the past 12months.

There is an argument that AUD could run higher with oil. So far, coal, LNG and iron ore have run with it. Though more out of positioning sympathy than fundamentals.

Perhaps this is enough to help AUD work off its oversold positioning.

That said, I’m still a seller of any rallies.

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

RBA

4.35%

Jan 02, 2024

BOE

5.25%

Dec 14, 2023

ECB

4.50%

Dec 14, 2023

FED

5.50%

Dec 13, 2023

SNB

1.75%

Dec 14, 2023

BOC

5.00%

Jan 24, 2024

RBNZ

5.50%

Feb 28, 2024

BOJ

-0.10%

Dec 19, 2023

CBR

15.00%

Dec 15, 2023

RBI

6.50%

Dec 08, 2023

PBOC

3.45%

BCB

12.25%

Dec 13, 2023

S&P/ASX 200	7,194.90	+21.60	+0.30%
ASX 200 Futures	7,221.5	+36.5	+0.51%
ASX All Ordinaries	7,405.60	+20.90	+0.28%
US 500	4,603.2	+17.6	+0.38%
Dow Jones	36,247.87	+130.49	+0.36%
China A50 Futures	11,302.0	-16.0	-0.14%
Dollar Index	103.965	+0.461	+0.45%

Crude Oil WTI	71.26	+1.92	+2.77%
Natural Gas	2.552	-0.033	-1.28%
Gold	2,020.80	-25.60	-1.25%
Silver	23.290	-0.769	-3.20%
Copper	3.8340	+0.0365	+0.96%
US Sugar #11	23.41	+0.38	+1.65%
US Coffee C	177.70	+0.20	+0.11%

Australia 10Y	4.354	+0.041	+0.95%
Australia 5Y	4.016	+0.054	+1.36%
New Zealand 10Y	4.982	+0.036	+0.74%
U.S. 10Y	4.229	+0.100	+2.43%
Japan 10Y	0.767	-0.005	-0.65%
China 10Y	2.698	+0.010	+0.37%
Singapore 10Y	2.885	+0.009	+0.31%

CSL	266.92	+0.43	+0.16%
Woolworths	35.770	-0.080	-0.22%
ANZ Holdings	24.610	+0.010	+0.04%
Commonwealth Bank Australia	106.440	+0.170	+0.16%
Telstra Group	3.840	0.000	0.00%
National Australia Bank	29.200	+0.010	+0.03%
BHP Group Ltd	47.740	+0.320	+0.67%

Australian dollar massively oversold

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