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Australian dollar faceplants as global economy lands

Published 17/11/2023, 09:28 am
DX
-

DXY is firm again:

DXY

AUD could not hold the gains:

AUDUSD

Nor the peg:

CNYUSD

Oil is getting flushed in a big warning for global growth:

BRENT

Dirt meh:

COPPER

Miners meh:

RIO

EM meh:

EEM

Junk meh:

HYG

Yields sank:

YIELDS

But stocks are suddenly worried about growth and earnings:

SPX

The US economy is coming into land under pressure from monetary tightening, fiscal turning headwinds, post-COVID normalisation for student loans and crunching private credit.

The place to look for the most stress is still small and medium-sized business. The NFIB is starting to show material stress:

NFIB
NFIB2

Thought labour hoarding is still rampant:

NFIB3

As the jobs market slowly loosens:

JOBLESS CLAIMS

So far, the landing is soft. But if SMEs break on employment, it will turn harder and faster.

For AUD to take another leg down, we must see a hard landing in the US.

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