Australian dollar calls the Fed’s bluff

au.investing.com/analysis/australian-dollar-calls-the-feds-bluff-200588901

By David Llewellyn-Smith | Feb 02, 2024 09:53

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DXY fell:

AUD dumped then pumped:

North Asia helped:

Oil slumped on Gaza peace hopes:

Metals followed:

Miners meh:

EM meh:

Junk meh:

Treasuries do not believe Jay Powell hawkishness:

Which lifted stocks:

US data was decent, with the ISM and construction spending printing above expectations:

But it should still not lift DXY.

The market is calling Jay Powell’s hawkish bluff. This is AUD bullish at the margin.

However, last night’s also shows the risks. The downside break was severe before the rally took hold.

A range-bound AUD with downside risks is now my outlook.

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

RBA

4.10%

Apr 01, 2025

BOE

4.50%

Mar 20, 2025

ECB

2.65%

Apr 17, 2025

FED

4.50%

Mar 19, 2025

SNB

0.50%

Mar 20, 2025

BOC

3.00%

Mar 12, 2025

RBNZ

3.75%

Apr 09, 2025

BOJ

0.50%

Mar 19, 2025

CBR

21.00%

Mar 21, 2025

RBI

6.25%

Mar 10, 2025

PBOC

3.10%

BCB

13.25%

Mar 19, 2025

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ASX 200 Futures	7,997.5	-28.0	-0.35%
ASX All Ordinaries	8,178.50	-147.90	-1.78%
US 500	5,764.8	+26.3	+0.46%
Dow Jones	42,801.72	+222.64	+0.52%
China A50 Futures	13,292.0	-16.0	-0.12%
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Gold	2,914.10	-12.50	-0.43%
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Copper	4.7100	-0.0975	-2.08%
US Sugar #11	18.31	+0.18	+0.99%
US Coffee C	384.40	-2.75	-0.71%

Australia 10Y	4.411	-0.076	-1.78%
Australia 5Y	3.896	-0.068	-1.77%
New Zealand 10Y	4.636	-0.062	-1.28%
U.S. 10Y	4.304	+0.025	+0.70%
Japan 10Y	1.499	-0.025	-1.64%
China 10Y	1.750	-0.010	-0.57%
Singapore 10Y	2.676	-0.069	-2.55%

CSL	259.66	-2.34	-0.89%
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ANZ Holdings	28.670	-0.710	-2.42%
Commonwealth Bank Australia	148.500	-5.090	-3.31%
Telstra Group	4.150	-0.020	-0.48%
National Australia Bank	34.260	-0.330	-0.95%
BHP Group Ltd	38.980	-0.250	-0.64%

Australian dollar calls the Fed’s bluff

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